Talking Points:

• NFPs are the media-friendly statistics, the unemployment rate is more important to monetary policy

• Therefore, NFPs can stir short-term volatility while the underlying stats can feed rate expectations

• Historically, the VIX drops on NFPs day, but a focus on yields may leverage a dollar response

Expect breakouts? Use the DailyFX Breakout 2 strategy to signal or confirm setups!

The NFPs are the thunder but the underlying labor data is the lightening when it comes to market impact. We head into the March jobs report with S&P 500 at a record high and USDollar pressed against the top of a range. We can taste the potential in the market, but the labor stats impact may not carry the necessary drive to accomplish something like the long-awaited S&P 500 reversal or a EURUSD break from its 1.3650 - 1.4000. What influence will this data have? What are the scenarios for how it prints and is interpreted? What dollar and risk trades are best attuned to the release? We discuss this in today's Trading Video.

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