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Forex Strategy Video: Does an RBNZ Hike Ensure a NZDUSD 0.8500 Breakout?

Forex Strategy Video: Does an RBNZ Hike Ensure a NZDUSD 0.8500 Breakout?

2014-03-11 20:43:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The market is fully pricing in expectations of a 25 bp rate hike from the RBNZ to 2.75%

• While the rate move is important, the trend is likely to be decided by forecasts for future hikes

NZDUSD is wedged into a breakout pattern between 0.8500 and 0.8400 awaiting a spark

Expect breakouts? Use the DailyFX Breakout 2 strategy to signal or confirm setups!

According to the FX and swaps market, traders are certain that the RBNZ will hike its benchmark lending rate 25 bps to 2.75 percent. For NZDUSD standing just below resistance at 0.8500 that seems a perfect fundamental-technical combination to trade. However, there are nuances to this event risk. Beyond the off-chance that a hike isn't realized (as was the case in July 2011), we have to remember that market has fully priced in a hike. Simply affirming what was expected is unlikely to generate enough follow through to override these natural stubborn market conditions. That's why we need to look at the market's interpretation for subsequent rate policy. This is event and its influence over kiwi trading is the topic of today's Strategy Video.

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