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Forex Strategy Video: USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD - When do We 'Buy the Rumor'

Forex Strategy Video: USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD - When do We 'Buy the Rumor'

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• Due to individuals' tolerance for risk and availability of data, 'buy the rumor' can be difficult

• There is a cognitive bias in which traders believe a fundamental run has begun when they learned of it

• Gauging what is 'priced in' is critical to fundamental trading in Dollar, Euro, Yen and all currencies

Find help with your trades and trading strategy from DailyFX analysts with DailyFX on Demand.

There is a saying 'buy the rumor, sell the news'. Yet, when is the rumor mainstream and therefore fully priced in? This is a timeless question for fundamental traders and investors who attempt to take advantage of asymmetrical information and probabilities. In today's Strategy Video, we discuss a cognitive and trading bias (related to the observation selection bias) whereby traders can find themselves late to a fundamental theme and ultimately late to the trade. This is a timeless and universal theme as we find yen traders assess the probability of a BoJ QE2, an ECB stimulus replacement program, a distant BoE hike and the Fed's views on the heavily debated Taper. This bias represents a critical and constant influence on markets and therefore is vital for a fundamental trader to familiarize themselves with.

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