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Forex Strategy Video: When Does the US Dollar Rally on Risk Aversion?

Forex Strategy Video: When Does the US Dollar Rally on Risk Aversion?

2013-10-08 19:39:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The US Dollar is considered the FX market's ultimate safe haven due to its depth and reserves presence

• Despite a key technical breakdown of 2013 support for the S&P 500, the greenback was little moved

• Intensity and conviction to sentiment are needed to overcome the dollar's debt crisis connections

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The S&P 500 marked a serious technical break of 2013 support...and yet the US Dollar was virtually unmoved on the day. What does it take to reactivate the greenback's safe haven appeal? Is it lost? While the technical move from the benchmark equity index was important, it does not yet speak to a full-scale flight from risk. Not only is the slump in stocks tentative, we have not seen the contagion jump readily to other markets. And, to override the concerns of a debt crisis diverting capital away from US assets, we need to see fear amplified to prioritize liquidity above all else. We discuss the dollar's relationship to risk trends, what to watch for and how to trade on theme in today's Forex Strategy Video.

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