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Australian Dollar Volatility Expected with RBA Tonight

Australian Dollar Volatility Expected with RBA Tonight

2011-09-19 22:12:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

For the 6th consecutive day, equities fell in Asia and found the low in either the European or US session and then accelerated higher after the European close. So much headline risk and central back meddling in markets makes confident forecasting more difficult than normal but ES has ranged more or less between 1200 and 1130 for over a month now. If this continues, then the next move is lower (currently 1202) but 1170 is now support. 1224 is the pivot – trading above there would shift focus to the June low at 1246.50 and then a measured level at 1276.25.

My focus remains on the AUDUSD, especially with RBA tonight. Price has dropped below 10177 (barely) so the minimum expectation for a new low has been satisfied. I am still looking lower towards the 8/11 low at 10110 and Elliott channel closer to 10030 though. With the gap open lower (from 10355), popular thinking seems to be that we have to close the gap before going lower. We might but there is also the possibility that the decline extends AND THEN finds a low. This would probably cause the most pain to the most people and markets have a way of doing just that (extending lower on RBA would probably result in a lot of new shorts at bad prices). If we go lower into the mentioned objectives after RBA, then I’ll be scaling out. If we go higher, then make sure the stop is at breakeven (10380).

USDJPY is starting to show signs of that break but action is painfully slow. Monthly pivots s1 and s2 are 7500 and 7330.

The EURUSD may be trying to base – 13650-60 is support and a short term idea is to establish longs there against 13585 and target 13750 and 13800 (reward:risk isn’t great).

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