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RBA Minutes to Spark Aussie Volatility Tonight

RBA Minutes to Spark Aussie Volatility Tonight

2011-07-18 21:23:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

I wrote about equities last week and the commentary remains valid - “I am looking for a test of at least 1300 in the S&P index and maybe a final tag of the trendline from the 2009 lows (in red above) near 1275 before the next bull leg. The bearish implications from the potential head and shoulders and island reversal in SPY remain but a break below the trendline from the 2009 low is needed to confirm.” The index got to 1295.92 and the future to 1291.25 today before reversing. There is no way to know if this is a low at this point. Additional weakness would encounter trendline support near 1275 in the index. There is more on the S&P in the week ahead video.

The EURUSD has refused to cave as the former resistance line (drawn off highs since 2008) is now acting as support. The 2010-2011 trendline is at about 13750 this week but last week’s reversal and buy signal (more on that in video) suggests that a low may be in place. Of note as well is the recent Economist cover, risk reversal rate (lowest since 2010 low), and CME volume on Euro futures (highest since December low) – all of this information is consistent with a low. Is it possible that a larger EURUSD downtrend is underway? Of course, but the weight of evidence points the other way in my opinion. That said, I urge against exercising your inner Ron Popeil so don’t set it and forget it (apologies for those that don’t get the reference). Today’s low (14013) offers a fairly tight stop. A drop below would shift focus to 13950. My positions are managed through proprietary signals on 10 and 60 minute charts – and published through the FOREX News Stream and Twitter (JamieSaettele).

RBA July minutes tonight may spark volatility. I am on the lookout for a low in the AUDUSD below 10525. There is channel support at 10475 and former resistance 10488. 10650/75 is short term resistance. A low in the 10475/10500 vicinity could compose the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern (underway since late May). 10390 is critical to the bull case.

Continue to watch EURAUD. The current bounce may provide a longer term bearish opportunity. Resistance comes in at 13375 and 13430.

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