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Euro Triangle Possibly Complete but Trade Range for Now

Euro Triangle Possibly Complete but Trade Range for Now

2011-07-07 21:38:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

It is now possible that the triangle in the EURUSD is complete. Nothing is ever certain of course and I suggest focusing on short term levels in order to control risk. Until price breaks (either above 14577 or below 14070), it is best to favor range trading. Resistance is 14440 and support 14300/14280. A drop below the Trichet spike low of 14220 would NOT necessarily be bearish either (support would come in at the triangle line which is at 14165 today).

NZDUSD is at a record high and focus is on the resistance line (upward sloping) above 8400. AUDUSD was impressive and may break higher but I hate chasing, especially with the straight line S&P rally of late. Any setback in equities (incredibly overdue) would most likely be accompanied by AUD and NZD weakness.

Most of the gains in equities occurred before the open today. The result is a gap followed by a small body. Given the pathetic volume of late (yesterday’s SPY volume was the lowest since 5/27), I’m thinking this is an exhaustion gap.

This is just an observation but USDJPY 20 day ATR (currently 0.66%) is at its lowest since July 2007 when the USDJPY was above 120! The reading on March 10th was 0.68%. The earthquake occurred on March 11th and the next month in the Yen crosses were wild to say the least. Low volatility can last for months but it is worth keeping an eye on the Yen in case things begin to pick up – in either direction.

I like shorting EURAUD as a longer term idea. The stop can be moved to 13570. The resistance zone is 13365-13415. Cable is weak across the board and I like a GBPUSD short with a stop above 16140 – short term resistance is 16025/50. The target is the December 2010 low at 15350.

I maintain a constructive stance on the USDCHF (reasons include COT, weekly key reversal, interest rate differential, momentum considerations) but a move above 8525 is needed in order to inspire confidence. Until then, one must respect the possibility that the sideways trading since June is just consolidation before the next leg lower.

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