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Euro Stages Incredible Comeback: Play the Range

Euro Stages Incredible Comeback: Play the Range

2011-06-23 21:34:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

A chart in the video plots the daily closes for the EURUSD during the 2008 topping process and since the May high of this year. The paths are similar. I’ve no idea if the EURUSD will continue to follow the 2008 script (if it does, then the next big move is to 15000) but price is still holding above its 2008 trendline and the 25 delta 3 month risk reversal rate remains extreme. Respect the range until it breaks. The range low is the May low at 13969.

SPY volume was the highest since the 6/16 low (Nasdaq volume was the highest since the March low). This kind of volume is typically seen at panic lows. Increasing the odds of a recovery over the next few weeks is a potentially completed 5 wave decline from the May top (Elliott wave theory posits that market movements occur in 5 and 3 wave sequences). The implications are for a recovery back to at least 1300 and probably closer to 1325 over the next several weeks before a REAL panic decline begins. In other words, the larger trend is down and this next rally should be sold.

Reinforcing a short term recovery scenario is the divergence between the S&P and Nasdaq – the former has held above its March high while the latter dipped beneath its March low last week and this week before reversing. An intense short covering rally is probably underway. The implications are near term USD bearish.

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