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Current Currency Trading Opportunities

Current Currency Trading Opportunities

2011-06-14 22:30:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist



The CBOE equity put/call ratio called a bottom yesterday and the rally is constructive. We could get some weakness in the overnight session but I’m looking higher towards 1296.75 September (at least) over the next few days.

The bond market is often considered ‘smarter’ than the equity market and I think we saw that today as the yield curve steepened. The long end of the curve soared. The widening of spreads between safer (short end) and more risky (long end) debt is an indication of risk aversion. Expect this story to gather steam in the months ahead – especially once equities start to decline. Ironically, this is probably USD bullish as the USD is the only currency that can satisfy liquidity demands in such a situation.

The implication from the above is probably a lower USD on balance over the next few days to week. I like…

-EURUSD to 14550, support is 14415 and 14380 (below 14320 negates)

-GBPUSD above 16550 (as per the 3 wave decline from there), support is 16285 and 16345 (jobless claims may spark 2 way volatility) – below 14200 negates

-AUDUSD to 10840-10900, support 10655 and 10620 (below 10568 negates)

-USDCHF higher to at least 8550 (early May low), support at 8420, below 8345 negates. There is the possibility of a sharp rally in the USDCHF. Swiss 2 year yields (green) are at their lowest since September 2010. The difference between US 2 year yields (black) and Swiss 2 year yields are at their highest since March – the yield differential has bottomed out and the exchange rate appears to be lagging – it’ll catch up eventually. The difference is plotted on the bottom of the chart. SNB is Thursday by the way.

Jamie Saettele holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association and is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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