News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX - https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H Mid-Week Market Check Up with IG on Wednesday at 9:30am EST - https://t.co/8SFBJxNZrA
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/q0tVjDEr0v
  • The US 10-Year Treasury yield has advanced for four consecutive weeks for the longest such stretch since September 2018. Yet this isn't just a US issue. Yields are up globally. Perhaps most impressive is Japan's 10yr adv... https://t.co/78deo7rOa8 https://t.co/SjXYClItFC
  • Rising Treasury yields inspired a broad selling in global equities last week. The longer-term outlook remains positive however on the back of the reflationary theme, strong earnings and vaccine progress. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/LLlhEpmJxI https://t.co/bJebULtjLG
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/kuqShllQFp
  • Although the longer-term technical outlook for AUD remains skewed to the topside, recent developments suggest the commodity-sensitive currency could lose ground against USD and JPY. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Rl1h8WdXwp https://t.co/49RKx86FzG
  • ECB policymakers were out in force last week, saying they were watching Eurozone government bond yields, but yields rose anyway, and that’s positive for $EURUSD and the Euro crosses. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/nJdh9dA1HM https://t.co/peLh7zTTiz
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/vs7ypHHwya
  • The GBP rally vs USD came to an abrupt end and reversal; this sets cable up for more selling in the week ahead. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/Ee9PSppnd2 https://t.co/uaiCiEHBMs
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into the new year? Find out with your free guide here: https://t.co/e7udCTJlmf #DailyfxGuides https://t.co/OXUgYIl2ru
Market Outlook Amidst Virus Outbreak – Recession, Gold, Safe Havens

Market Outlook Amidst Virus Outbreak – Recession, Gold, Safe Havens

Talking points on this podcast:

  • Global recession – How bad can it get?
  • Safe havens: USD, JPY or CHF?
  • How will the gold market move during the pandemic?

This time on Trading Global Markets Decoded, our host Martin Essex is joined by John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist at DailyFX. In this edition, we cover the latest thoughts on how severe a global recession might be, discuss the safe havens to consider at this time, and assess how the gold market might move in the pandemic. You can listen to this podcast by clicking on the YouTube link above or by using one of the alternative platforms listed below.

Global Recession: How bad can it get?

Talk begins with predictions for the severity of an upcoming recession. How deep might it be? “We will have a very intense GDP contraction and I’ve seen some fairly severe numbers,” John says. “The US is projecting a 25% loss on the quarter, which I don’t think is impractical [as] you’re shutting down the country forcibly.

“That being said, it’s not about what happens during that period where you essentially put the economy into an induced coma, it’s about what you do after you start opening the economy back up.”

The crux of the matter is, will people retain their jobs, will businesses be carried over with loans until they can get back to work, and essentially can we just pop right back up when the economy reopens?

“That’s not clear, but [with] the scale of stimulus from governments and central banks, I feel like the foundation is being set. The question is, exactly how much needs to be done? The debate is between a V recovery, a U recovery or an L-shaped ‘recovery’, which isn’t a recovery at all.

“I still think we’re in for something along the lines of a U recovery. I think people who are saying V are probably being overly optimistic, but so long as we continue down this path and we don’t have a subsequent wave of global pandemic into the fall or into the winter, I think that’s a relatively practical expectation.”

What safe havens could be key for this period?

Talk moves to safe havens. What has caused traders to opt for USD rather than other ‘traditional’ safe havens like JPY and CHF? “The thing about safe havens and risk assets is, people think that once you tip into the category of safe haven or risk asset it’s like flipping a switch, but there are degrees of intensity,” John explains. “The more aggressive risk aversion becomes, the more our needs as a market shift towards the more rudimentary/elementary, and that includes liquidity.”

This means if you’re looking at CHF or JPY, those generally do perform as safe havens, but in reality, for a couple of reasons they are not total havens; not total liquidity. “Having global funds come and park in your country because you represent a risk-free benchmark with deep liquidity – that’s more the speed of the US Dollar,” John says.

This doesn’t mean to say that people don’t have problems with USD but, when it comes to panic, USD, US market funds and US Treasuries are still the habitual retreat point. “And that’s what you saw particularly in the second half of March 2020 when the Dollar surged.

“But you notice after that hike and peak of panic eased back, so did the Dollar. [After that] the sense of risk aversion was still there and you get a little bit more of a dissemination into the Yen, Swiss Franc and gold for example.”

Starts in:
Live now:
Mar 01
( 11:03 GMT )
Recommended by Ben Lobel
FX Week Ahead: Strategy for Major Event Risk
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

For more ways of listening to the DailyFX podcast, click on one of the additional channels below.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES