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Live Data Coverage: October US NFP & Unemployment Rate

Live Data Coverage: October US NFP & Unemployment Rate

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

US NFP Preview:

  • Consensus forecasts are looking for jobs growth of +200K while the unemployment rate (U3) is anticipated to tick higher to 3.6%.
  • With rates markets discountinga 50-bps rate hike in December, the question for risk assets – stocks, commodities – is good news bad news?
  • Will the October US jobs report change the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the October US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

More Good News is Bad News?

A US recession may be in the past and may still be forthcoming, but the US labor market has remained resilient thus far. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the US economy added +200K jobs in October from +263K jobs in September, with the US unemployment rate (U3) rising to 3.6% from 3.5%. The US participation rate is expected to hold at 62.3%, while US average hourly earnings are anticipated to come in at +4.7% y/y from +5% y/y.

If ‘good news is bad news’ for risk assets as the Federal Reserve recalibrates its policy stance, then ‘good news is good news and bad news is bad news’ for the US Dollar: a strong US labor market report could help revitalize Fed rate hike odds; a weak US labor market report weigh on terminal rate odds in 2023, which would hurt the US Dollar.

Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator (October 2022) (Chart 1)

According to the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, the US economy needs +104K jobs growth per month over the next 12-months in order to keep the unemployment rate (U3) below 5% with a 63.4% labor force participation rate.

We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the October US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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