Live Data Coverage: September US NFP & Unemployment Rate
US NFP Preview:
- Consensus forecasts are looking for jobs growth of +250K while the unemployment rate (U3) is anticipated to hold at 3.7%.
- With rates markets discounting another 75-bps rate hike in November, the question for risk assets – stocks, commodities – is good news bad news?
- Will the September US jobs report change the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the September US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
More Good News is Bad News
Despite mounting US recession concerns, the US labor market has remained resilient. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the US economy added +250K jobs in September from +315K jobs in September, with the US unemployment rate (U3) holding at 3.7%. The US participation rate is expected to edge higher to 62.5% from 62.4%, while US average hourly earnings are anticipated to come in at +5.1% y/y from +5.2% y/y.
It remains the case that ‘good news is bad news’ for risk assets as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers (many of whom spoke this week and will speak later today) have repeatedly stated that the FOMC wouldn’t mind to see a softer labor market if that’s the price to pay in order to bring inflation down; a strong US labor market report could boost Fed rate hike odds, which are discounting an 87% chance of a 75-bps rate hike in November.
Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator (September 2022) (Chart 1)
According to the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, the US economy needs at least +108K jobs growth per month over the next 12-months in order to return to the pre-pandemic US labor force participation rate of 63.4% while keeping the unemployment rate (U3) at 5% or lower.
We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the September US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.