Live Data Coverage: April US NFP & Unemployment Rate
US NFP Preview:
- Consensus forecasts are looking for jobs growth of +391K while the unemployment rate (U3) is anticipated to drop to 3.5% from 3.6%, a new low post-pandemic.
- Could another strong US labor market report resuscitate speculation around a 75-bps rate hike in June?
- Will the April US jobs report change the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the April US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:20 EDT/12:20 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
Jobs Data Matters Again!
Despite weaker topline growth figures through 1Q’22, the US domestic economy remains relatively strong – particularly the labor market. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the US economy added +391K jobs in April from +431K jobs in March, with the US unemployment rate (U3) falling from 3.6% to 3.5%. The US participation rate is expected to edge higher to 62.5% from 62.4%, while US average hourly earnings are anticipated to come in at +5.5% y/y from 5.6% y/y.
After several months of US jobs reports that, quite frankly, didn’t mean much for markets, the April US nonfarm payrolls report may actually prove market moving. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemingly eliminated the potential for a 75-bps rate hike in June. However, less than 24-hours after his press conference on Wednesday, rates markets started pricing in a such an occurrence anew. A strong US labor market reading could lead to additional turmoil in markets; good news is bad news, again.
Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator (April 2022) (Chart 1)
The US economy continues to make steady progress towards ‘full employment’ as experienced pre-pandemic. According to the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, the US economy needs +73K jobs growth per month over the next 12-months in order to return to the pre-pandemic US labor market of a 3.5% unemployment rate (U3) with a 63.4% labor force participation rate.
We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the April US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:20 EDT/13:20 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.