Live Data Coverage: April US Nonfarm Payrolls w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA
US NFP Preview:
- Consensus forecasts are looking for payrolls to come in north of one million. Will another strong US NFP fail to help the US Dollar?
- However, the range of estimates around the release is higher: with a standard deviation of +/203K, a wide disparity of estimates around the official data means there is a high risk for heightened volatility.
- Will another strong US NFP fail to help the US Dollar? Or will the US Dollar’s strong May seasonal tendency begin to take shape? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the April US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
All Eyes on April US Jobs Data
Following the surprisingly strong reading for March, the US labor market is looking to build on that momentum by matching – if not beating – the prior month’s data. Consensus surveys from Bloomberg News expect that the world’s largest economy added +1000K jobs in April following the gain of +916K jobs in March. The unemployment rate (U3) is set to drop from 6% to 6.8%.
The US jobs report may be a much needed antidote for the US Dollar, which has seen its April struggles spill into May. But it could also serve as another signpost that an inflation trade is continuing to make its way through markets: higher yields, higher equities, and a weaker US Dollar – thanks in part to the Federal Reserve, which refuses to fully acknowledge the price pressures building as anything more than transitory.
We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the April US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.