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  • The Canadian Dollar may resume its broader advance against the Japanese Yen given the less-dovish scope of the BoC compared to the BoJ now and perhaps in the long run.Get your $CAD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LjuvBh7pL3 https://t.co/PTZ3l2rwvp
  • Risk trends heading into European and US trading sessions is struggling for conviction. The Dow 'broke' to a fresh record high while the $NDX has its range break lower. Their 10-day correlation is the most negative since June 2018 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/06/EURUSD-and-GBPUSD-Staged-for-Breakouts-but-Where-are-the-Sparks-Before-NFPs.html https://t.co/5IlbQbeZpf
  • 5-year breakeven rate has reached a 13-year high as commodity prices soared. The two exhibited strong positive correlation over the past five years. Will this trend be sustained? https://t.co/qKTv4U3tOZ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.20%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.43%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dQxPADf7NV
  • Gold prices have slipped lower in recent days. However, this seems to be only a temporary set-back as the long-term technical outlook continues to hint at further gains ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/6Zuyx9UapR https://t.co/o0lDwHEROi
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.08% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0Rac5Jbkwc
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.05% Wall Street: -0.04% France 40: -0.05% Germany 30: -0.07% US 500: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/9K9bEY3UGo
  • The Dollar is poised with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, but it needs a catalyst to make something of the setup. $EURUSD has a wedge and may need to weight for #NFPs but $GBPUSD has the smallest 50-day range since July 2014 and the #BOE later today https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/06/EURUSD-and-GBPUSD-Staged-for-Breakouts-but-Where-are-the-Sparks-Before-NFPs.html https://t.co/xOeVyB0SOo
  • (Market Alert) AUD/USD Sinks as China Suspends Economic Talks with Australia, Will Support Break? $AUDUSD #China #NDRC #Australia #AUD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/06/AUDUSD-Sinks-as-China-Suspends-Economic-Talks-with-Australia-Will-Support-Break.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/MkAxeNTjQF
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.015%) S&P 500 (-0.096%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.191%) [delayed] -BBG
Live Data Coverage: March Canada Jobs Report w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Live Data Coverage: March Canada Jobs Report w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Canada Jobs Preview:

  • According to a Bloomberg News survey, consensus forecasts call for a gain of +100K jobs after an outstanding gain of +259.2K previously.
  • Despite the ‘slowdown,’ another +100K jobs is nothing to sneer at: this is roughly the equivalent of a US NFP coming in near +900K.
  • Will USD/CAD test its yearly lows? Can CAD/JPY keep its bullish breakout going? Will energy markets remain supportive? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the February Canada jobs report starting at 8:20 EDT/12:20 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

Impressive Jobs Growth, Still

Like its southern neighbor, the Canadian jobs market is expected to show further improvement in March. However, even absent a robust vaccination effort like the United States, the Great White North is expected to see the same kind of breakneck jobs growth like what was showcased in the March US nonfarm payrolls report.

Consensus forecasts are calling for a gain of +100K from +259.2K in February. The Canadian unemployment rate is set to fall further from 8.2% to 8%. Despite the ‘slowdown,’ another +100K jobs is nothing to sneer at: this is roughly the equivalent of a US NFP coming in near +900K. More Loonie strength may be on the way.

Will USD/CAD reverse its recent gains? Can CAD/JPY maintain its bull flag? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the March Canada jobs report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

Read more: Central Bank Watch: BOC, RBA, & RBNZ Interest Rate Expectations Update

IG Client Sentiment Index: USD/CAD Rate Forecast (April 9, 2021) (Chart 1)

Live Data Coverage: March Canada Jobs Report w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA

USD/CAD: Retail trader data shows 59.17% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.45 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.36% higher than yesterday and 2.78% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.61% lower than yesterday and 8.11% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall.

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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