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  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.003%) S&P 500 (+0.073%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.021%) [delayed] -BBG
  • (Sentiment Weekly) Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc Analysis: USD/JPY, USD/CHF May Fall as Long Bets Rise #Yen #Franc $USDJPY $USDCHF https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/04/14/Japanese-Yen-Swiss-Franc-Analysis-USDJPY-USDCHF-May-Fall-as-Long-Bets-Rise.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/6EXLAB614y
  • Retail traders appear to be reducing long exposure in the Euro after recent gains. This hints that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY may rise in the near term, but could this trend last down the road? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Y1d4DXeKEE https://t.co/JmGCbxkfWp
  • Gold Prices Probe Barrier as Inflation Data Sinks the USD and Yields https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/14/Gold-Prices-Probe-Barrier-as-Inflation-Data-Sinks-the-USD-and-Yields-.html https://t.co/bdNaQQsMqu
  • The Indian Rupee rose as the Nifty 50 slightly fell after the RBI left benchmark rates unchanged despite recent weakening inflation and a massive fiscal spending plan. Will USD/INR bounce? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/SwufKMOwfQ https://t.co/R2XfXKiRT5
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gxv7FwyhsM
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.50% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.26% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hQBjkAnaA1
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  • British Pound Price Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Poised to Extend Climb - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2021/04/14/British-Pound-Price-Outlook-GBPUSD-GBPJPY-Poised-to-Extend-Climb.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $GBP $GBPUSD $GBPJPY https://t.co/rDOIqMJQfk
  • The US Dollar may extend gains against the Thai Baht. But, its price action within USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR seem to be favoring more range-bound trading conditions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/DYCLXAFcCr https://t.co/q3hRzYvE7n
Live Data Coverage: March Fed Meeting w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Live Data Coverage: March Fed Meeting w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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US NFP Preview:

  • Estimates are calling for payrolls to come in above +650K following last month’s US jobs report that showed a gain of +379K.
  • But the consensus forecasts are not uniform: with a standard deviation of +/155K, a wide disparity of estimates around the official data means there is a high propensity for volatility.
  • Will strong US economic data help the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) continue its run? Or will thin markets around the holiday weekend tamp down potential enthusiasm? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the March US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

Blowout US Jobs Data Anticipated

Following the surprisingly strong reading for February, the US labor market is looking to build on that momentum with a reading nearly twice as strong. Consensus surveys from Bloomberg News see the world’s largest economy having added +675K jobs in March following the gain of +379K jobs in February. The unemployment rate (U3) is set to drop from 6.2% to 6%.

The US jobs report may serve as a key stepping stone to reinvigorating the US-centric ‘reflation trade’: higher yields, higher equities, and a higher US Dollar – even if the April monthly seasonality trends cut against more greenback strength.

Alas, with only bond market futures and foreign exchange markets open on Good Friday (in what’s a three-day weekend for North America and a four-day weekend for Europe and other parts of the world), it’s possible that a more significant market reaction waits until next week.

We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the March US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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