Live Data Coverage: March Fed Meeting w/ Christopher Vecchio, CFA
US NFP Preview:
- Estimates are calling for payrolls to come in above +650K following last month’s US jobs report that showed a gain of +379K.
- But the consensus forecasts are not uniform: with a standard deviation of +/155K, a wide disparity of estimates around the official data means there is a high propensity for volatility.
- Will strong US economic data help the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) continue its run? Or will thin markets around the holiday weekend tamp down potential enthusiasm? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the March US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
Blowout US Jobs Data Anticipated
Following the surprisingly strong reading for February, the US labor market is looking to build on that momentum with a reading nearly twice as strong. Consensus surveys from Bloomberg News see the world’s largest economy having added +675K jobs in March following the gain of +379K jobs in February. The unemployment rate (U3) is set to drop from 6.2% to 6%.
The US jobs report may serve as a key stepping stone to reinvigorating the US-centric ‘reflation trade’: higher yields, higher equities, and a higher US Dollar – even if the April monthly seasonality trends cut against more greenback strength.
Alas, with only bond market futures and foreign exchange markets open on Good Friday (in what’s a three-day weekend for North America and a four-day weekend for Europe and other parts of the world), it’s possible that a more significant market reaction waits until next week.
We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the March US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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