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USD Technical Outlook: Recent History Suggests Pullback Nearly Finished

USD Technical Outlook: Recent History Suggests Pullback Nearly Finished

2019-11-19 12:33:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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US Dollar Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) pullback may soon be finished
  • EUR/USD the driver here, watch resistance

US Dollar Index (DXY) pullback may soon be finished

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been dipping, but if it is to behave as it has since last year then the dip may be very near finished. It came hot out of the gates to start the month, in much the same way it did after three other medium-term declines ended over the past year+. The current pullback has taken back about half the rally and if it isn’t stopping here, perhaps the 200-day just a little bit lower will do the trick. If history holds, then a sizable rip should be in store next.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart (dip then rip?)

USD Technical Outlook: Recent History Suggests Pullback Nearly Finished

US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart by TradingView

EUR/USD the driver here, watch resistance

The Euro is in charge here, as it represents nearly 60% of the DXY’s weighting. It’s called the ‘Anti-Dollar’ for a reason. As discussed in this morning’s Euro piece, EUR/USD is up against old support that is now resistance again. A turn down from here will put in that low for the DXY, and with the Euro following its downtrend the Dollar will resume its uptrend.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart (at resistance)

USD Technical Outlook: Recent History Suggests Pullback Nearly Finished

EUR/USD Chart by TradingView

***Updates will be provided on the above ideas as well as others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held at 1030 GMT on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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