FX Price Action Talking Points:
- As the Q3 open approaches the big question is whether the US Dollar might be able to fall further after a bearish theme showed up in June. After rallying for much of the period since last February, the US Dollar has broken-below the bottom of a rising wedge pattern after a dovish flip at the FOMC.
- In this webinar I looked at a series of price action setups in FX major pairs with a selection included below.
US Dollar Takes on Bearish Tone Ahead of Q3 Open
The US Dollar’s bullish trend may have met its match in the month of June as a bearish theme appeared following a dovish flip at the Fed. But – is the bank at the point where rate cuts might be an actual possibility? The short-side of the US Dollar can remain as interesting as the second-half of 2019 nears.
US Dollar Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
EURUSD Continued Short Squeeze Potential
I’ve been following the long side of EURUSD over the past month as a series of bear traps had shown in the month of May. As USD weakness began to get ramped up, EURUSD turned higher and has continued to push in fresh higher-highs and higher-lows. This keeps the door open for a move up towards the 1.1448-1.1500 zone of prior resistance. Another area of potential support lurks below in the pair, taken from prior resistance around the 1.1250 area.
EURUSD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
GBPUSD Sellers Defend 1.2750
For themes of USD strength, GBPUSD can remain of interest. Even as the brute portion of the recent USD move was getting priced-in, GBPUSD remained rather subdued, finding sellers at the 1.2750 level since late-May. This can keep the door open for bearish themes in the pair, looking for prices to move down towards the 1.2523 Fibonacci level that helped set the June low.
GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
AUDUSD Re-Tests Key Resistance
Also on the side of long-USD scenarios, AUDUSD has recently started to re-test a key zone on the chart. I had looked at this level earlier in June for resistance potential, and that led in to a hold of the highs which was followed by a fresh five-month-low. As USD weakness has gotten priced-in throughout the month, prices have bounced back. This keeps the door open for short-side scenarios on the pair, particularly for those looking at strategies around a return of USD-strength.
AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
USDJPY Tests Lower-High Resistance at Confluent Spot on the Chart
USDJPY has been one of my favored pairs for short side USD exposure for over a month now; and the pair has done a great job of mirroring overall risk tones for a good portion of this year. I had looked at short-side setups off of the 108.47-108.70 zone a couple of weeks ago; and it took a while for that to fill-in, but the initial 107.00 target was hit earlier this week. As I wrote on Tuesday , the pair may be due for a pullback, and with a strong area of prior support very nearby around the 108-handle, this could be an interesting area to follow. That price has since come into play and sellers have thus far responded, keeping the door open for a continuation of lower-lows and lower-highs in USDJPY.
USDJPY Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley
To read more:
Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
Forex Trading Resources
DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.
If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
