The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been holding onto support, but could that change in the week ahead? If support is to break, then the Euro will need to get into gear here soon; there is some reason to believe that may be the case. Crude oil has a short-term pattern developing that could trigger next week. Gold is pressing hard against a major breakout zone, get above 1375 and things get very interesting.
- US Dollar Index (DXY) support remains big focus
- Euro change in character suggest more upside?
- WTI crude oil could be putting in a bearish pattern
- Gold pressing hard on major resistance
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US Dollar Index (DXY) support remains big focus
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to be a major focus given where it stands with strong support at its feet. It feels like a failure to hold support would be far more significant than if it continues to hold and rally, as the trend (as tepid as it has been) quickly comes under fire and market participants get caught holding the bag.
A reversal in trend would mean the Euro is breaking a rather significant pattern, as well, that suggests a major move. But for now, we must respect the trend-line/200-day combo, with DXY 96.46 as the big line-in-the-sand.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (building a wedge)
Euro change in character suggest more upside?
The Euro is trading at the upper bounds of a falling wedge, a potentially explosive pattern if fully triggered. While we need confirmation before running with an outright bullish bias, there is reason to believe it could come soon.
The swift bearish reversal on June 5 led to zero follow-through, and in fact was negated in less than two days’ time. In recent months any time a bounce was met with a swift reversal in momentum, EURUSD followed through on the downside. This change in behavior may be suggesting a trend change is underway. Again, we need to see a bit more strength before this gets notion gets more backing, but could certainly be the case here soon.
EURUSD Weekly Chart (falling wedge to fire it higher soon?)
EURUSD Daily Chart (recent reversal was negated, could be change in behavior)
WTI crude oil could be putting in a bearish pattern
Yesterday, crude oil bounced from near the June 5 low, which was limited in upside momentum with the help of a multi-week downtrend line. The tepid bounce off support has a lower-high in the works, too, which increases the potential for a descending wedge to form. A break of the 50.54 level is viewed as a catalyst for kicking off more weakness towards the 48/46-area, where a pair of longer-term trend-lines/slopes align from the depths of 2016.
Crude oil 4-hr Chart (descending wedge in the works)
Gold pressing hard on major resistance
Gold is doing its best to break out of a wedge formation it has been building for several years. A breakout of this magnitude could be quite significant. Full clearance on the pattern is for a weekly close above 1375, sporting a measured move target up to the high 1600s. This could come as soon as next week if resistance isn’t met with the same kind of opposition it has been for some time, now.
In the event we see a wicked reversal back lower, it could keep the ball in the bear’s court for a while longer. Indeed, at a big spot with implications to match.
Find out where our analysts see Gold heading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Gold Forecast
Gold Weekly Chart (top of wedge, 1375+ needed for full breakout)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX