The Dow Jones rallied strongly yesterday after starting out the weak on a neutral note; this has confluent resistance in focus. The DAX is also nearing a cross-road of resistance it must overcome in this current sequence of strength if it is to continue higher. Crude oil contracts are stuck in the mud despite being oversold, may lead to more losses this week.
Technical Highlights:
- Dow Jones nearing 200-day, t-line
- DAX approaching confluent t-lines
- Crude oil contracts stuck in the mud
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Dow Jones nearing 200-day, t-line
The Dow Jones lifted nicely yesterday, breaking back through resistance just over 25200. This has the 200-day MA in focus along with a trend-line from the May high running down in confluence with the moving average.
This could provide a good little test here today. Given the power of the surge off the low, though, as we are seeing now futures are indicating higher on the open and they may stay that way. A break above resistance doesn’t put the market in the clear but does at the very least put a pause on shorts.
Dow Jones Daily Chart (watch 200-day/t-line)
Check out the Q2 Equities Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
DAX approaching confluent t-lines
The DAX is in rally mode after hitting the lower parallel tied to the trend-line off the May 3 high. The bounce has that top-side trend-line in focus as resistance along with the underside of the recently broken December trend-line.
DAX Daily Chart (confluent t-lines near)
Crude oil contracts stuck in the mud
WTI crude oil is failing to do much here despite a bounce in stocks. The ‘dead-in-water’ look it is sporting suggests another leg lower is coming. On the hourly time-frame there is a triangle forming which may indeed be what leads price lower. Watch a pair of lows that supported crude back in February around 51.15 as the next level of support on further selling. If the triangle is broken to the upside then expect some form of a recovery, but it may be a tough ride higher as it goes counter-trend.
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (watch 51.15 on further weakness)
WTI Crude Oil Hourly Chart (symmetrical triangle)
Check out the Q2 Crude Oil Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
Brent crude oil is sporting a bit more of a bullish posturing that WTI, but still failing to get much ‘oomph’ so far off the lows. Right now, though, given the pattern in WTI, it is the preferred contract to watch at the moment.
Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart (confluent support at risk of breaking)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
