The U.S. stock market remains on its heels with prices threatening to break the 200-day MAs; the Dow Jones is already trading below its long-term threshold. Crude oil bounced a bit off support level, but looks positioned to go the way of risk and continue lower. Gold is tight-roping the August trend-line with it battling bullish and bearish forces; something likely to give soon.
Technical Highlights:
- Dow Jones looking to continue below support levels
- Crude oil contracts bounced but looking lower
- Gold price holding the August trend-line keeps it intact
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Dow Jones looking to continue below support levels
The Dow Jones is on the verge of leaving behind the 200-day MA and breaking below the 25208 level. A hold today may keep the market up, but it appears this would only be temporary. The burden of proof is clearly on buyers at this juncture. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 as the 200-day is about to come into play and often times when it does volatility rises, which could make for some sharp intra-day moves for the remainder of the week.
Dow Jones Daily Chart (support under siege)
Check out the Q2 Equities Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
Crude oil contracts bounced but looking lower
WTI crude oil got a little bounce off minor confluent support which arrives by way of the top of a small consolidation back in Feb/March and a lower parallel connected to the April high. The bounce looks likely to be short-lived. A break of 57.19 is set to have sub-55 in play.
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (watch for support break)
Check out the Q2 Crude Oil Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
Brent crude traded off last week to the Feb ’16 slope and lower parallel from the recent high in April. The bounce in Brent was stronger than in WTI, but nevertheless a lower-low appears likely to be nearing. A move towards 64, the bottom of the Feb/March range, could be in the works in the sessions ahead with a break of 67.13.
Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart (confluent support at risk of breaking)
Gold price holding the August trend-line keeps it intact
Gold isn’t sure what it wants to do here as it see-saws on the August trend-line. The trend off the February high is lower, but until gold breaks the August trend-line it will remain supported. A break below the trend-line, 1266, and the rising 200-day at 1260 could have significant bearish impact. However, as long as support holds, even if gold doesn’t look poised to rally, we must respect it.
Gold Price Daily Chart (holding onto Aug t-line)
Check out the Q2 Gold Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
