News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Dollar Outlook: DXY Index Hammered as Treasury Yields Ebb -via @DailyFX Link to Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2021/05/18/us-dollar-outlook-dxy-index-hammered-as-treasury-yields-ebb.html $USD $DXY #Trading https://t.co/2zVfDWI5Y7
  • AUD/USD attempts to retrace the decline following the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) as it bounces back from the 50-Day SMA (0.7715). Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/EIQ7utBH9A https://t.co/RcWf6JgYX5
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.64%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/EhQn4EqJYE
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.06% Gold: -0.03% Oil - US Crude: -1.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ALjM4GEwOj
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.54% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.45% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.41% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/bgTy0ZEXoV
  • Some really great insight and compelling chart setups below. Strongly encourage taking the time to read through my colleague @JStanleyFX's latest take on #StockMarket cycles. https://t.co/erlf7M9z27
  • Tesla, ARKK, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500: Varying Stages of the Cycle $TSLA $ARKK $NDX $SPX In order from strongest to weakest: 1) SPX 2) NDX 3) TSLA 4) ARK the leaders have become the laggards... https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/05/18/Tesla-TSLA-Musk-ARKK-NDX-SPX-varying-stages-of-market-cycle.html
  • Please join @JStanleyFX at 13:00 EST/17:00 GMT for a webinar on trading price action. Register here: https://t.co/rFhWzz0pIy https://t.co/o75ju2BFfA
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.13% US 500: -0.15% Germany 30: -0.17% Wall Street: -0.23% France 40: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/c6YWLXdVAI
  • $GBPUSD retesting that Feb 24 swing high is one thing, but to put it into context, that is just off the confluence 2018 double top and midpoint of the 2014-Present range at ~1.4300 https://t.co/EgqXHjVyS5
Trading Outlook for Dow Jones, DAX, Crude Oil, Gold & More

Trading Outlook for Dow Jones, DAX, Crude Oil, Gold & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The U.S. stock market, depending on the index, is at or near record highs, will the Dow breakout or shake-out? The DAX is trading up against a trend-line off the record high, puts it at a bit of risk of pulling back. Crude oil broke out of a base and continues to look bullish, but price is getting extended here and caution is warranted for longs (not yet looking like a short, though). Gold is trying to hold an important trend-line, make or break is the question.

Technical Highlights:

  • Dow Jones working towards record high, DAX at t-line resistance
  • Crude oil is extended, caution warranted for longs
  • Gold is sitting on holding trend-line support for now

Make more informed decisions by checking out our trading forecasts and educational resources on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Dow Jones working towards record high, DAX at t-line resistance

U.S. stocks have been quite strong, with the Nasdaq 100 leading to record highs the past few sessions and the S&P 500 and Dow lagging just behind. There is a wedge continuing to develop as price in the Dow moves towards the old record, which suggests a strong move could be on its way.

The underside of the pattern is also the trend-line off the December low, so as long as that holds so does a bullish bias despite record highs as a significant level of resistance. If the Nasdaq 100 is any indication then we might not see much hesitation out of the Dow, or S&P for that matter when crossing over into new record territory.

A sharp slash below the trend-line will be needed at this time to turn the picture bearish, otherwise a new record seems the likely scenario just ahead.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (wedging near record highs)

Dow Jones daily chart, wedging near record highs

Check out the Q2 Equities Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

If the U.S. markets forge on to a new record it will be interesting to see how the DAX treats the trend-line off the record high. One has to think it will break above in sympathy, but if we do see some type of lag out of the German benchmark then it could strengthen the case later for turning to it as a short. For now, respecting resistance until broken.

DAX Daily Chart (at t-line resistance)

DAX daily chart, at t-line resistance

Crude oil is extended, caution warranted for longs

On Monday, crude oil shot out of a basing pattern with the help of some Iran news and this has higher prices still in store. It’s becoming extended and caution is warranted for longs, but this doesn’t mean that it’s time to short. Watch how some resistance in the 67s is handled. Generally speaking, there are a few upward sloping lines (see chart) which are keeping the overall bias pointed higher. Until those are broken the trend is up.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (Extended, watch the 67s)

WTI crude oil daily chart, extended, watch the 67s

Check out the Q2 Crude Oil Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

Gold is sitting on holding trend-line support for now

Gold, as discussed in detail earlier, is trying to hold the trend-line from August. It’s an important threshold after the descending wedge was broken. For now, giving it the benefit of the doubt, but a break could quickly bring into play the 200-day MA at 1251.

Gold Daily Chart (August t-line providing support)

Gold daily chart, August t-line providing support

Check out the Q2 Gold Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, and trading guides to help you improve trading performance.

We also have a series of guides for those looking to trade specific markets, such as the S&P 500, Dow, DAX, gold, silver, crude oil, and copper.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES