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FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD

FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD

2019-04-16 19:19:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist

FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD

This webinar was hosted amidst a backdrop of continued congestion across FX-land, where even the largest and traditional ‘big movers’ remain in varying forms of range or congestion. The Dollar dithers near long-term resistance as the ascending triangle formation remains, waiting to be filled by a bullish breakout. EURUSD has built into a bear flag, but even that takes place amid a longer-term bout of mean reversion. In this webinar, I looked at setups across the US Dollar, including a couple of key commodity markets as Oil prices have begun to test a zone of potential higher-low support, looked at in this week’s Oil Price Technical Forecast.

Forex Talking Points:

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US Dollar Bulls Continue to Shy Away from Resistance

On short-term charts, there isn’t much to get excited about in the US Dollar. Prices have been making lower-lows and lower-highs over the past week; but bears haven’t been able to really re-grab control of the matter and this keeps the longer-term ascending triangle at bay. This week’s economic calendar is noticeably light on US issues, leading to the idea that any near-term bullish breakouts will likely need to come from some exogenous shock factor, which could prod risk aversion long enough to compel a DXY breakout.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

usd price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURUSD Builds Bear Flag After April Support Bounce

I had looked at the long side of EURUSD around the April open, and again coming into this week. April support is coming in from a big confluent area on the chart, taken from the 1.1187 and 1.1212 Fibonacci levels. Those prices have helped to hold the lows in the pair for almost six months now as the range has continued to build.

This one could be approached in a few different ways: From a very short-term perspective, traders could look for bullish continuation within the channel that’s built since that support bounce. Working with that thesis, near-term resistance off of the 50% marker of the recent major move is coupled with support at prior resistance, around the 23.6% marker of the same move.

EURUSD Two-Hour Price Chart

eurusd price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Taking a step back to the four-hour chart, and traders looking at bearish strategies may get some workable information. Prices remain in the bullish channel making up the bear flag formation; but this also comes with potential invalidation around the 23.6% marker of the same move, around the 1.1250 area of support on the chart. This was mentioned in this week’s FX Setups for potential bearish strategies, targeting a re-test of the 1.1187-1.1212 support zone.

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Taking yet another step back, and the focus reverts back to the almost six-month-old range, looking for the support side to continue filling-in towards resistance at 1.1448-1.1500.

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBPUSD: Descending Triangle

After looking for a support bounce in GBPUSD around the start of this month, I shifted the pair into bearish strategies in this week’s FX Setups, looking for resistance to hold at either 1.3117 or, a bit deeper around 1.3181-1.3187. If a big response of USD-strength shows up, the support side of that descending triangle is vulnerable to bearish breakouts.

GBPUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCAD Builds a Wall of Resistance

While there’s been a lot of talk about walls and barriers around the US of recent, but in FX, it’s USDCAD price action that’s really been at work. There’s a chasm of resistance in the next 100 pips above the current USDCAD spot price, with major levels at 1.3361, 1.3376, 1.3385, 1.3423, 1.3443 and 1.3462; and that’s all before the psychological level of 1.3500. This, combined with a bullish backdrop in Oil prices (discussed below) gives ample motive to continue looking at the short-side of USDCAD.

USDCAD Daily Price Chart

usdcad daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDJPY Breakout Pauses at 112.00

Last week’s big takeaway was a re-emergence of Yen weakness, and this showed against most major currencies. In USDJPY, this amounted to a topside rally from the 110.86 Fibonacci level, all the way up to the 112.00 level that previously held the highs in the pair. Bulls have yet to make much ground higher, and in this week’s FX Setups, I looked at two support zones for strategies of bullish continuation. The first of those has already started to come into play.

USDJPY Four-Hour Price Chart

usdjpy price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCHF Moves Back into Resistance Zone

USDCHF has caught a bid to push all the way up from .9902 towards the 1.0100 level. Parity was a mere point of pause as bulls have remained firmly in-control. The big question, at this point, is whether this zone of resistance helps to elicit another reversal in the pair.

USDCHF Four-Hour Price Chart

usdchf four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

AUDUSD Rallies Up to Range Resistance

This was looked at last week, but the ‘R2’ zone has started to come back into play in AUDUSD. Early week price action caught a resistance inflection off of this zone but, as of yet, bears haven’t been able to re-grab control.

AUDUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

audusd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

NZDUSD Support Bounce Targets Fibonacci Re-Test

The support looked at last week in NZDUSD, taken from the Fibonacci level at .6717 has helped to hold the lows, and prices have put-in the early stages of a bounce. Should buyers retain control, focus moves towards a re-test of the Fibonacci level at .6820.

NZDUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

nzdusd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Oil Prices Test Support at Prior Resistance

In this week’s technical forecast for Oil, I kept a bullish stance, looking for prices to pullback from fresh highs in order to cauterize support at prior resistance. That zone has already come into play and, so far, has helped to hold the lows. This keeps focus for Oil prices on a move back towards the $65 handle, and in this webinar, I shared a few area and pointers to look to should prices continue rallying towards that prior high.

Oil Price Four-Hour Price Chart: Rally from Key Chart Support

oil price four hour chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


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