Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

The rip in crude oil continues to impress as price accelerates at its fastest pace since coming out of the low in December. This has attention on a pair of swing-lows developed last year. Gold continues to hold into its bid, appear to be working on maturing a wedge formation. The Dow is backing down into support while the S&P 500 builds a pattern that could lead the market strongly in either direction.

Technical Highlights:

  • Crude oil rally has price resistance in focus
  • Gold is working towards top of would-be wedge
  • Dow at support, S&P 500 rising wedge

Make more informed decisions by checking out our trading forecasts and educational resources on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Crude oil rally has price resistance in focus

The past couple of weeks have brought with it the fastest rise in prices in oil since the initial squeeze out of the December low. This has the Feb ’16 trend-line, top of a multi-month channel, and 200-day broken, but the rally has brought into play a pair of important swing lows from the summer.

Yesterday, crude stalled at this important resistance and with oil overbought it is due for a pullback at the least. Price action has yet to give shorts the upper hand yet, so we will want to be patient here and see if sellers begin to show up in earnest.

It is reasonable to expect material weakness to set in at some point very soon, though. For those who have good prices from the long-side, considering buttoning up trailing stops at this juncture may prove to be a prudent move…

Crude oil Daily Chart (June/August lows in play)

Crude oil daily chart, June/August lows in play

Check out the Q2 Crude Oil Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

Gold is working towards top of would-be wedge

Gold got a nice boost from support and with that it is at the trend-line running off the February high. A wedge, descending in nature, is nearing maturity. A confirmed breakout in either direction is needed before running with a trading bias, but it could be soon. For now, risk will soon turn towards seeing another small turn down at the least as pattern resistance comes into play.

Gold Daily Chart (wedge coming into shape)

Gold daily chart, wedge coming into shape

Check out the Q2 Gold Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

Dow at support, S&P 500 rising wedge

The Dow is slowly backing down into support thus far, with a move below 25800 becoming concerning for longs. Three is trend-line and price support in the current vicinity above 26k to keep any eye on for now.

Dow Daily Chart (backing into support)

Dow daily chart, backing into support

Check out the Q2 Equities Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

The key to U.S. indices, though, isn’t the Dow but rather the S&P 500 as per usual given its broader influence. But its technical structure is also worthier of noting at the time than the other two major indices, the Dow and Nasdaq. The rising wedge discussed earlier could hold the keys to the next big move. Have to wait for the break before running with a bias…

S&P 500 Daily Chart (rising wedge forming)

S&P 500 daily chart, rising wedge forming

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, and trading guides to help you improve trading performance.

We also have a series of guides for those looking to trade specific markets, such as the S&P 500, Dow, DAX, gold, silver, crude oil, and copper.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX