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  • Gold could suffer further near-term losses due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weak technical picture for price action. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DColmanFX here:
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FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDCNH and Gold Price

FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDCNH and Gold Price

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDCNH and Gold Price

It’s been a chaotic 24 hours since yesterday’s FOMC rate decision. After an initial move of weakness in the US Dollar around that announcement, prices found support on a bullish trend-line and have spent much of the time since in some form of rally, erasing the entirety of the FOMC-fueled breakdown in the currency.

This dip-then-rip has made impact across a variety of markets, including EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold prices and more. In this webinar, I looked across the landscape after what’s been an eventful FOMC outing.

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US Dollar Rallies from Trend-Line Support After Dip to March Lows

The initial move yesterday was a pronounced rush of USD-weakness until that trend-line support came into play. And while that bearish move in USD is supported by the fundamental underpinning of a more-dovish Fed, the fact-of-the-matter is that there aren’t many hawkish Central Banks on the horizon; and even with the Fed cutting rate forecasts from two hikes in 2019 to zero, they’re still one of the more hawkish CB’s amongst developed economies.

Bigger picture – this keeps the ascending triangle formation in order, and this will generally be approached in a bullish manner – looking for the motivation that’s brought buyers in at higher-lows to, eventually, play through for a break of horizontal resistance around 97.70.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

us dollar daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURUSD Rallies to Prior Range Resistance, Bears Pounce

Going along with that outsized movement in the US Dollar was a very pronounced bullish move in EURUSD around yesterday’s FOMC. And ironically, it was the ECB rate decision earlier this month that had previously driven the USD up to that failed resistance test at 97.71. But, as weakness in USD continued to price-in after that ECB rate decision, EURUSD strength remained and prices worked back into the prior range that had held for four months.

Yesterday’s rush of USD-weakness and EURUSD strength pushed prices in the pair all the way up to the 1.1448 Fibonacci level, at which point sellers came back-in the equation and have pretty much remained in-charge ever since. In the webinar, setups were looked at on both sides of the matter: Bearish backdrops for longer-term strategies along with bullish strategies for shorter-term variants.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCNH Rallies Back Towards Confluent Resistance

With a pronounced reaction of USD strength since that trend-line came into play, the short-side of USDCNH could soon become of interest again. I had looked at this pair for USD-weakness strategies coming into this week, largely on the basis of a hold in a bearish channel that’s been in-play for all of 2019. Prices tested through the second target after yesterday’s initial rush of USD-weakness and have since bounced-up to a key area on the chart

USDCNH Daily Price Chart

usdcnh daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Gold Breaks Out, Hits Next Resistance, Pulls Back

Gold prices broke out from key resistance yesterday, running up to the next zone of resistance around the 1320 level. Since that level came into play, prices have pulled back to the prior resistance zone, finding a bit of short-term support. A hold here keeps the door open for bullish scenarios, and this could be attractive to those looking for manners of taking on USD-weakness.

Gold Price Two-Hour Price Chart

gold price two hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

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DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.