Stocks have maintained a bid, but both the S&P 500 and the DAX have sizable resistance levels to contend with, especially the latter index. The DAX also has potential for creating a solid short-term chart pattern worthy of traders’ attention. Gold is continuing to try and mount a recovery but may stall soon if resistance is validated. Crude oil has been directionless for a while now, but get ready for it to move as congestion gives way to an uptick in volatility (favoring the upside at the moment) …
- S&P 500 up against 2800/17-area, DAX long-term H&S neckline
- Gold trading at resistance, price action to determine if matters
- Crude oil contracts congestion set to end soon
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S&P 500 up against 2800/17-area, DAX long-term H&S neckline
The S&P 500 pulled off the 2800/17 resistance zone not long ago but this week’s rally has the market right back there assaulting strong resistance again. It’s resistance until it’s not, but so far it is looking more likely than not that a run above will develop soon. Shorts may take interest, though, in using 2817 as a backstop, but overall conviction is lacking at this time unless we see a turn lower again on a failed attempt to break higher – then short-term shorts could gain traction again.
S&P 500 Daily Chart (2800/17 resistance)
For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Global Equities Forecast
The DAX is at a major level of long-term resistance, the kind that could lead to an important high. The neckline of the long-term head-and-shoulders continues to be a problem for the index, and for as long as it stays below then the outlook is neutral at best. A break below the lower parallel of the developing channel off the December low is needed before becoming more aggressively bearish.
DAX 30 Weekly Chart (Stuck at big resistance)
Dialing in a little closer, the hourly chart is showing the potential for a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the neckline in confluence with the trend-line off the December low. It will make for a solid spot of confluent support, which would-be longs could lean on; and for shorts, should it break and trigger a fully matured H&S pattern, a high quality set-up will be in full-swing.
DAX 30 1-hr Chart (Possible H&S in confluence w/t-line)
Gold trading at resistance, price action to determine if matters
As discussed earlier this morning, gold (&silver) are at resistance. How things play out here are important for the near-term outlook. A material turn lower will provide conviction that the bounce is over and that a move down to the 1250s may be getting underway.
Gold Daily Chart (at resistance)
For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Gold Forecast
Crude oil contracts congestion set to end soon
WTI and Brent crude oil contracts continue to coil up, readying themselves for a breakout as near-term volatility drops strongly. The trend off the December low imply a break to the topside, but we need to wait for confirmation before running with this bias. A break above 57.61 (WTI) and 67.73 (Brent) are needed to get things rolling higher again.
WTI Crude oil Daily Chart (wedge-break coming…)
For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Crude Oil Forecast
Brent Crude oil Daily Chart (trend suggests higher, but must wait for break)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX