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Trading Outlook for S&P 500, DAX, Gold Price, Crude Oil & More

Trading Outlook for S&P 500, DAX, Gold Price, Crude Oil & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Stocks have maintained a bid, but both the S&P 500 and the DAX have sizable resistance levels to contend with, especially the latter index. The DAX also has potential for creating a solid short-term chart pattern worthy of traders’ attention. Gold is continuing to try and mount a recovery but may stall soon if resistance is validated. Crude oil has been directionless for a while now, but get ready for it to move as congestion gives way to an uptick in volatility (favoring the upside at the moment) …

Technical Highlights:

  • S&P 500 up against 2800/17-area, DAX long-term H&S neckline
  • Gold trading at resistance, price action to determine if matters
  • Crude oil contracts congestion set to end soon

Check out our Trading Forecasts and Educational Resources on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

S&P 500 up against 2800/17-area, DAX long-term H&S neckline

The S&P 500 pulled off the 2800/17 resistance zone not long ago but this week’s rally has the market right back there assaulting strong resistance again. It’s resistance until it’s not, but so far it is looking more likely than not that a run above will develop soon. Shorts may take interest, though, in using 2817 as a backstop, but overall conviction is lacking at this time unless we see a turn lower again on a failed attempt to break higher – then short-term shorts could gain traction again.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (2800/17 resistance)

S&P 500 daily chart, 2800/17 resistance

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Global Equities Forecast

The DAX is at a major level of long-term resistance, the kind that could lead to an important high. The neckline of the long-term head-and-shoulders continues to be a problem for the index, and for as long as it stays below then the outlook is neutral at best. A break below the lower parallel of the developing channel off the December low is needed before becoming more aggressively bearish.

DAX 30 Weekly Chart (Stuck at big resistance)

DAX 30 weekly chart, stuck at big resistance

Dialing in a little closer, the hourly chart is showing the potential for a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the neckline in confluence with the trend-line off the December low. It will make for a solid spot of confluent support, which would-be longs could lean on; and for shorts, should it break and trigger a fully matured H&S pattern, a high quality set-up will be in full-swing.

DAX 30 1-hr Chart (Possible H&S in confluence w/t-line)

DAX 30 1-hr chart, possible H&S in confluence w/t-line

Gold trading at resistance, price action to determine if matters

As discussed earlier this morning, gold (&silver) are at resistance. How things play out here are important for the near-term outlook. A material turn lower will provide conviction that the bounce is over and that a move down to the 1250s may be getting underway.

Gold Daily Chart (at resistance)

Gold daily chart, at resistance

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Gold Forecast

Crude oil contracts congestion set to end soon

WTI and Brent crude oil contracts continue to coil up, readying themselves for a breakout as near-term volatility drops strongly. The trend off the December low imply a break to the topside, but we need to wait for confirmation before running with this bias. A break above 57.61 (WTI) and 67.73 (Brent) are needed to get things rolling higher again.

WTI Crude oil Daily Chart (wedge-break coming…)

WTI crude oil daily chart, wedge-break coming...

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Crude Oil Forecast

Brent Crude oil Daily Chart (trend suggests higher, but must wait for break)

Brent crude oil daily chart, trend suggests higher, but must wait for break

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, and trading guides to help you improve trading performance.

We also have a series of guides for those looking to trade specific markets, such as the S&P 500, Dow, DAX, gold, silver, crude oil, and copper.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.