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  • Gold could suffer further near-term losses due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weak technical picture for price action. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/g9QvH3L4It https://t.co/Vz98E0Bl9U
  • Gold has been trending lower after failing to clear resistance in the $1835 area earlier this month. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DColmanFX here:https://t.co/3hm1g3BHgf https://t.co/MdTQKEBCBx
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March https://t.co/4cI6l210ui
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/CRWhuZ3sxD https://t.co/svHHqN2Zz8
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES https://t.co/qogkjs1Sx2
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/dlNXOrJnM9 https://t.co/LCQd26W1zF
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB https://t.co/N4EDfwD3nZ
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk. https://t.co/AazskXGjHq
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT https://t.co/oYnm2OYRky
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/AquMSrssne https://t.co/DtFuFfrS7Q
FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD

FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD

Forex Talking Points:

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US Dollar Tests 97.00 After ISM Report

The US Dollar drive-higher has continued after the bullish reversal that began to show last Thursday. Prices pushed up to the 97.00 area earlier this morning, at which point resistance began to set-in. This is the same level that had set the swing-high in January and even offered some short-term support in mid-February before the USD reversal began to show. That reversal ran all the way into last Thursday’s low, and it’s been largely a one-way show since. Bullish continuation strategies could continue to focus on support potential around 96.68, 96.47-96.63 and the 96.27-96.30 area on the chart.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

us dollar usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURUSD Falls Out of Rising Wedge, Begins Re-Test of Range Support

Last week, I had looked at two formations in EURUSD. On a longer-term basis, the range formation remained; but on a shorter-term look, a rising wedge pattern had built-in, which will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals. Prices soon began to test below that rising wedge, and so far this week that move has continued as bears have made a push down to the longer-term support zone in the pair. At this stage, there’s no visible signs on shorter-term charts of a bottom being in place, so traders looking to act on that range may want to wait for a bit of confirmation first. Also of note – Thursday brings an ECB rate decision to the table.

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBPUSD Bounces from ‘S3’ – Resistance Potential at Prior ‘S2’

I had looked at three different levels in GBPUSD last week and at this point, each has come into play in some shape, form or fashion. The first of those areas (1.3230-1.3250) helped to elicit a mild bounce that led into a lower-high. The second, around the 1.3187 Fibonacci level, similarly led into a bounce that built-into another lower-high. And the third of those zones came into play earlier this morning, helping to set the low (so far) for today. At this stage – the big question is whether sellers show up to offer support at that prior zone of ‘s2’ support. This can open the door for bearish continuation strategies, targeting a re-test of 1.3117.

GBPUSD Hourly Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCAD Re-Tests Resistance Ahead of BoC

I had looked at bullish reversals in USDCAD last Thursday. Prices have made a fairly clean run up to a key area of resistance that runs from 1.3361-1.3385. That area has since helped to hold the highs; but there’s not yet any indication of bears entering the picture. If prices do hold this resistance zone, the door may soon open to short-side swing strategies around tomorrow’s BoC rate decision.

USDCAD Four-Hour Price Chart

usdcad four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDJPY – Doesn’t Like 112.00, At Least Not Yet

The bullish breakout in USDJPY has continued up to another fresh high. The 112.00 level was hit on Friday and after another test this morning, prices failed to hold above that price. As I had shared on the webinar, this may be a bit of short-term capitulation in that theme. This could keep the door open for support potential in the prior area of resistance that runs from 111.13-111.25.

USDJPY Four-Hour Price Chart

usdjpy usd/jpy eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCHF Nearing Showdown

USDCHF is rallying while trading above the parity level on the chart, eradicating the prior bearish theme in the pair that had held into last week. At this point, the sole item of interest on my charts is the resistance zone that runs from 1.0071-1.0096. A re-test in this zone, with a hold below the prior swing high, can open the door for short-side swings.

USDCHF Eight-Hour Price Chart

usdchf usd/chf eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

AUDUSD Testing Support

Aussie has been fairly range-bound over the past month, and prices have been getting very comfortable around support of .7060-.7075. As shown on short-term charts, a descending triangle had built, which will often be approached in a bearish manner. However – given the context with the support side of that triangle near longer-term support, I instead wanted to wait for a topside breach of that formation in order to open the door for bullish strategies in the longer-term range build.

AUDUSD Hourly Price Chart

audusd aud/usd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURJPY Tests Big Picture Resistance: Directional Change on the Horizon?

Last week, I had looked at a building bear flag formation in EURJPY. The Yen-weakness theme remained an item of excitement, and EURJPY soon touched-up to the 127.50 level that had previously helped to set range support. Since then, however, a shift has appeared to show with sellers pushing a bit more, which may be opening the door for reversal scenarios.

EURJPY Two-Hour Price Chart

eurjpy eur/jpy two hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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