The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is finally rolling over out of a tight range and below key a trend-line, making it vulnerable to falling further in the days ahead. The Euro is a primary driver of the USD index and is on the verge of a significant breakout as built up pressure is set to be released. Gold is in an extended state but has technical support in addition to the likelihood of having a weak Dollar to help bolster it along…
Technical Highlights:
- US Dollar Index (DXY) rolling over, below key trend-line
- EUR/USD on the cusp of a breakout soon
- Gold price extended, but has slope and Dollar support
See where our team of analysts see your favorite markets and currencies headed in the months ahead on in the Q1 Trading Forecasts.
US Dollar Index (DXY) rolling over, below key trend-line
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rolling over from its late-year congestion and below the trend-line back to April. This has the rising wedge pattern triggered and the Dollar set up for weakness. How the DXY index plays out though largely hinges on what happens here soon with its largest constituent, the Euro. It’s been a long, drawn-out series of choppy trading so a large sustainable move is due. The 200-day is up first as support followed by the September low at 93.83.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (Rolling over)
Check out the recently released Q1 US Dollar Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
EUR/USD on the cusp of a breakout soon
The Euro holds the key for the DXY and as it flirts with a breakout we may have a resolution soon. Pent up pressure since late October and all last year, really, with diminishing price swings, has the Euro set up for a big move soon. One-month implied volatility shows a clean one-year pattern suggesting we could be in for a round of much larger price swings in the months ahead. Clearance into the mid-11500s will have the ground above 11800 first in focus, if not higher. A failure to overtake resistance and drop lower out of congestion is seen as potentially leading to strong move lower.
EUR/USD Daily Chart (breakout coming)
Check out the recently released Q1 Euro Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
Gold price extended, but has slope and Dollar support
The move in gold has been aggressive, something gold hasn’t been showing us much of in recent months. Watch how it responds on a pullback now that it has risen out of an upward channel and has top-side slope support. This support coupled with a weakening Dollar could offer a good backdrop for another push higher into resistance from last year.
Check out the recently released Q1 Gold Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
Gold Daily Chart (Watch slope support)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
