The outcome of today’s FOMC meeting may have a lot to say for stocks, as the Dow and S&P trade at or near important yearly lows. Copper broke lower out of a triangle pattern I’ve been discussing in recent webinars. WTI crude oil broke hard from a symmetrical triangle, in search of support, maybe not get any until around 42. Gold is trying to work its way higher; today’s Fed meeting may dictate whether it gains top-side momentum or falls out of a bullish channel.
Technical Highlights:
- Dow Jones trading at important support zone as FOMC arrives
- Copper broke down out of triangle, looking for more weakness
- Crude oil extends losses out of triangle, where is support?
- Gold trading higher in channel, but with little inspiration so far
See how traders are positioned in various markets/currencies and what it potentially tells us about future price fluctuations – IG Client Sentiment
Dow Jones trading at important support zone as FOMC arrives
The sell-off in U.S. equities has been fierce but it hasn’t. It’s been a relatively large drop off the monthly high, but seemingly without a lot of fear attached. Nevertheless, we may see a rally take hold as big support is at hand. There are several lows from early this year which the Dow is currently sitting on.
Later today, the market will be looking for Fed Chairman Powell and the Fed to take a dovish turn, which may help give stocks a floor, or not. I’ll let price action determine if the Fed has meaning or not, but a bounce looks due and the area down here is as good a spot as any to do so from. Don’t look for it to be a powerful one, though, as general market tone and resistance levels lie not far ahead.
Dow Jones Daily Chart (Trading at important support)
See how we fared on our outlook heading into the end of the year and what it may mean going into 2019 – Global Equities Forecast
Copper broke down out of triangle, looking for more weakness
In the past couple of weeks, we’ve been looking at the triangle forming in copper and while I said it was ideal that it waits for January to break, the break is here is anyway. It could turn out to be a false one, but for now we’ll run with the break lower so long as copper doesn’t trade back to the other side of the triangle and can break the 2.64 level. Then the mid-2.50s, followed by the mid-2.40s will be targeted.
Copper Daily Chart (triangle broke)
Crude oil extends losses out of triangle, where is support?
The break in the U.S. contract comes from the symmetrical triangle I’ve been watching as of late. Meaningful support doesn’t arrive until around the 42 level, from which it would seem oil might finally be headed for a rally. But buying beforehand or until we see bullish-reversal type price action looks to be asking for trouble.
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (Meaningful support near 42)
Gold trading higher in channel, but with little inspiration so far
The volatility in gold is making it a difficult market to get a handle on at times, but even while this is so there is a decent-looking channel off the November low which traders can use as a guide. Stay within and the bias is higher, but drop below the lower parallel and selling may push gold lower towards the trend-line off the August low.
Gold Daily Chart (trading inside channel)
Resources for Index & Commodity Traders
Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, and trading guides to help you improve trading performance.
We also have a series of guides for those looking to trade specific markets, such as the S&P 500, Dow, DAX, gold, silver, crude oil, and copper.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
