Trading in USD is generally quite tough with price action extremely choppy and as the holidays quickly approach we might only see one more move, if that. The good news is the price action, when pulling back to the bigger picture, looks set up for a big move early next year. EUR/USD continues to coil up into a triangle pattern and is set to break any time now. EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD ran into resistance, look due for more near-term weakness. Gold broke out on Friday, currently trying to hold above the breakout level for a move up towards the next level of resistance.
Technical Highlights:
- US Dollar Index (DXY) choppy, limited opportunity
- EUR/USD triangle breakout could come at any time
- EUR/AUD & EUR/NZD could turn down from resistance
- Gold trying to hold breakout, further towards resistance
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US Dollar Index (DXY) choppy, limited opportunity
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been a choppy mess and with time running out until holidays are here, there may be only more move, if that. Keep an eye on the Euro as it continues to coil up and to which direction it may decide to break free from its contracting price sequence. The choppiness is unfavorable for now, but as the DXY works towards a narrowing range it sets up for a potentially big move to start the new year.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (Choppy convergence continues)
See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive the Dollar through year-end in the Q4 USD Forecast
EUR/USD triangle breakout could come at any time
EUR/USD triangle became a focal point of mine to end the week before last but is now nearing its apex and should be set to make a move soon. This may be the last decent move we see for the year. The chance of a top-side breakout failing into resistance is high, while a downside break will likely have the most traction given the trend and tone.
EUR/USD Daily Chart (Building Triangle)
See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive EUR/USD through year-end in the Q4 Euro Forecast
EUR/AUD & EUR/NZD could turn down from resistance
Finally, after numerous tests of the uptrend line from October, USD/CAD broke it yesterday. This keeps pressure on with rallies as seen in the very near-term as likely to be short-lived. Levels of support to watch arrive around 13127, 13050, then near 13000.
EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD both ran into resistance levels and are turning lower. In line with what looks like a generally weaker Euro these two crosses are set to trade off in the near-term. EUR/NZD in particular is attractive due to the fact it broke support and has the past couple of sessions validated it as new resistance.
EUR/AUD Daily Chart (tagged resistance)
EUR/NZD Daily Chart (Old Support, new resistance)
Gold trying to hold breakout, further towards resistance
On Friday, gold broke above resistance and at this time it is doing its best to hold on for a move towards the 200-day at 1255 and upper parallel closer to 1265. A breakdown back in the 1230s may have gold once again in retreat mode.
See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive Gold through year-end in the Q4 Gold Forecast
Gold Daily Chart (Trying to hold breakout level, eye resistance)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
