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Technical Analysis for Crude Oil, Gold Price, S&P 500, Dow, DAX & More

Technical Analysis for Crude Oil, Gold Price, S&P 500, Dow, DAX & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The decline in crude oil off major long-term resistance hasn’t disappointed in terms of magnitude, with key lines of support breaking yesterday more weakness is expected. Gold price met important resistance in the vicinity of 1235/40 and found opposition yesterday, focus is turning lower. The DAX broke big neckline support and at risk of trading to 2011 trend-line, while the S&P 500 tries to hang onto its last line of support before becoming at risk of a much larger decline.

Technical Highlights:

  • Crude oil breaking support lines, at risk of further losses
  • Gold price runs into resistance, turns bias lower
  • S&P 500 and Dow trying to hold onto support; DAX in bad shape

See how the majority of traders are positioned in various markets/currencies and what it says about future price fluctuations – IG Client Sentiment

Crude oil breaking support lines, at risk of further losses

The turn down from the 2008 trend-line/2012 lows has been a big one, but with market sentiment as bullish as it was this isn’t coming as a surprise. With the important July slope and June trend-line from 2017 broken along with the 200-day MA, oil is looking at a run on bottoms from June and August in the area of 64.45/63.62 if it can’t hold a minor trend-line connecting those lows.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (trend support broken)

crude oil daily chart, trend support broken

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical take, see the Q4 Crude Oil Forecast

Gold price runs into resistance, turns bias lower

Gold ran aground into the 1235/40 resistance area and looks poised to turn down with yesterday’s mini-rejection. A turn lower will once again have the 1214/10 region targeted, with the lower parallel from August in play on a break below price support. Tactically speaking, the outlook now appears to favor sellers.

Gold Price Daily Chart (Ran into 1235/40 resistance)

gold daily chart, ran into 1235/40 resistance

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical take, see the Q4 Gold Forecast

S&P 500 and Dow trying to hold onto support; DAX in bad shape

The S&P 500 is hanging on to support by a thread as it is just below the Feb 2016 trend-line/200-day combo and on the lower parallel running back to the early-part of the year. Yesterday’s reversal may have been a retest but if it doesn’t get into gear and we see a close below yesterday’s low at 2691, then look for much more weakness. But for now, support will be given the benefit of the doubt

S&P 500 Daily Chart (holding onto support by a thread)

S&P 500 daily chart, holding onto support by a thread

The Dow reversed yesterday off a trend-line from the spring to close again back above the 200-day MA. This keeps it support for now, but as is the case with the S&P 500, should yesterday’s reversal not hold then look for lower prices to follow.

Dow Daily Chart (t-line, 200-day)

Dow daily chart, t-line, 200-day MA

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical take, see the Q4 Global Equities Forecast

The DAX dropped below the neckline of a broad head-and-shoulders top dating back over a year-ago, but has the 2011 trend-line below to keep it supported for now. Overall, though, the DAX and Euro-zone equities are at risk of further losses if they don’t soon recover.

DAX Daily Chart (between neckline & 2011 t-line)

DAX daily chart, between neckline and 2011 trend-line

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, and trading guides to help you improve trading performance.

We also have a series of guides for those looking to trade specific markets, such as the S&P 500, Dow, DAX, gold, silver, crude oil, and copper.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.