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Trading Outlook for DXY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, Gold Price & More

Trading Outlook for DXY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, Gold Price & More

2018-10-09 11:19:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is making a move out of a short-term pattern. The euro is maintaining below its support-break last week and positioned for another round of selling. EUR/JPY looks especially vulnerable to more selling this week. Gold took it on the chin yesterday, a break below the Sep 28 low may have it rolling towards the August low.

Technical Highlights:

  • USD Index (DXY) heading higher from triangle
  • EUR/USD maintaining below important support
  • EUR/JPY momentum to continue after yesterday’s break
  • Gold price below Sep 28 low could spur move to August low

See where our team of analysts think your favorite markets and currencies are headed the next three months in the DailyFX Q4 Forecasts

USD Index (DXY) heading higher from triangle

The DXY is making a move out of a triangle pattern, which should keep the pressure on the top-side in the short-term at the least. There is trend-line resistance coming down on the daily in the 9630/40-area, so we’ll want to watch how price action plays out. If no impact, look for the August high to be challenged.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Hourly Chart (triangle)

dxy hourly chart, triangle

See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive the Dollar through year-end in the Q4 USD Forecast

EUR/USD maintaining below important support

EUR/USD traded below the important 11500-area last week and with it brought in the likelihood for further weakness. More selling is set up to have trend-line(s) from December 2016 tested. There are a couple of ways to draw them, depending on whether you included the lows or closing prints; with that said, the zone is between 11430 and 11380. We’ll pay close attention to see how the market wants to respond. No response, then look for a move towards support around 11300.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Below 11500, t-line tests coming)

eur/usd daily chart, below 11500, t-line tests

See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive EUR/USD through year-end in the Q4 Euro Forecast

EUR/JPY momentum to continue after yesterday’s break

Coming into the week, EUR/JPY was at a cross-road of support and possibly building a bull-flag, and as we noted then, though, it could make or break. The nature of bull-flags is that they are also bearish price sequences in the short-run, which if aren’t triggered to the upside can see price accelerate lower. As is the case now. The momentum from yesterday’s break is seen as enough to push EUR/JPY towards 12800.

EUR/JPY 4-hr Chart (Momentum to continue)

eur/jpy 4-hr chart, momentum to continue

See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive the Japanese Yen through year-end in the Q4 JPY Forecast

Gold price below Sep 28 low could spur move to August low

Gold remains an area we keep at arm’s length with its choppy price behavior closing in on two months. With that said, though, we can’t sleep on it. A break below the Sep 28 low at 1180 could be enough to send it reeling back to the August low.

Gold Daily Chart (Watch 1180)

gol daily chart, watch 1180

See what key fundamental and technical factors are expected to drive Gold through year-end in the Q4 Gold Forecast

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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