News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/rOnWgIotlz
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.11% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% Silver: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ENxA7SeIDF
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.13% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.13% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/cmUacZR1bK
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 87.12%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 74.18%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WKmgAjSLWR
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/3rXsyuSemd
  • Nasdaq 100 Rebounds as Tapering Fears Ease, Hang Seng and ASX 200 Climb https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/22/Nasdaq-100-Rebounds-as-Tapering-Fears-Ease-Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-Climb.html https://t.co/NZxRtj3rNa
  • ANZ Bank sees New Zealand house prices increasing by 0.7% in 2022 - BBG
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/9ZUHvkEw7R
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/aGz502atu0
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/OibiizbywE
Crude Oil Barreling Towards 2008 T-line; Chart Outlook for Gold Price, S&P 500 & More

Crude Oil Barreling Towards 2008 T-line; Chart Outlook for Gold Price, S&P 500 & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

WTI crude oil is quickly approaching a major long-term threshold via the 2008 trend-line, but also has other forms of resistance in the area, too, which could make the days ahead very important. Gold broke down out of a tight trading range, but is now ignoring dollar strength and trying to trade back higher. More volatility is to be expected this month, but outlook shrouded by choppiness. The S&P 500 continues to hold onto trend-line support, but if it breaks expect at least some mild weakness.

Technical Highlights:

  • Crude oil trading towards 2008 trend-line, sentiment overly bullish
  • Gold broke bottom of range and back inside, watch the top side
  • S&P 500 tip-toeing trend-line support, a break would be mildly negative

See how the majority of traders are positioned in various markets/currencies and what it says about future price fluctuations – IG Client Sentiment

Crude oil trading towards 2008 trend-line, sentiment overly bullish

Crude oil is quickly approaching a very important area of resistance. For starters, and most importantly, there is a trend-line running down off the 2008 high. But also, in the vicinity are lows created during 2011 and 2012. Of lesser importance, the top-side slope of the bull-move off the 2016 low arrives around the 2008 trend-line.

All of this makes for a big spot and the market is fully charged up as we approach. Looking at one sentiment metric in the futures market, the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI); it is reaching into the mid-90% range in terms of bullishness. These are rare readings and suggest the market is ripe for a reversal. Couple major long-term levels with an overly bullish market and indeed it looks like some kind of top is coming.

With conditions in place we’ll turn to the final arbiter – price. Watching for some type of volatile turnabout in price action will be the key to jumping aboard a turn lower. But keep in mind, a turn down probably won’t come all at once. The persistent trend is not likely to die quickly. But nevertheless, shorts should start to gain the upper hand even in the near-term as the market runs out of fuel. We’ll certainly be discussing oil more frequently in future webinars.

WTI crude oil Weekly Chart (Lots of Resistance)

WTI crude oil weekly chart, lots of resistance

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical take, see the Q4 Crude Oil Forecast

Gold broke bottom of range and back inside, watch the top side

Gold has been a difficult handle, with last month’s range an extremely tight one. Last week, gold broke down out of the range, but only briefly. The scenario of breaking down and quickly finding a low is one we discussed last week, and with gold trading back inside the range risk is becoming skewed towards a false breakdown leading to a rally. On a side note, gold isn’t responding much to dollar strength which may turn out to be a silver lining for gold. But overall, price action isn’t very favorable and generally leaning towards avoiding the precious metal altogether.

Gold Daily Chart (Reversed back inside range)

gold daily chart, reversed back inside range

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical take, see the Q4 Gold Forecast

S&P 500 tip-toeing trend-line support, a break would be mildly negative

The S&P 500 is given the benefit of the doubt within its uptrend, but with it repeatedly pressing on trend support a bullish outlook is at risk of souring. The trend-line from June is to be respected until broken and can be a guide for both sides of the market. Stay above and no reason to look for lower prices, break through and minor weakness could set in. As it stands right now, overnight futures have the market to open right around support.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (T-line Support)

S&P 500 daily chart, t-line support

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical take, see the Q4 Global Equities Forecast

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES