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Trading Outlook for Gold Price, Crude Oil, DAX, S&P 500 & More

Trading Outlook for Gold Price, Crude Oil, DAX, S&P 500 & More

2018-09-18 11:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

Gold has been a mystery of recent with it stuck in a range, it won’t last forever but patience needed for now. Crude oil continuing to trade around an important slope, another test soon could determine the near-term outlook. The DAX is trying to take over resistance, today’s close could be important. The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend and supported, but continue to keep an eye on the weakening Nasdaq 100.

Gold price range makes for tough trading (unless fading)

Technical Highlights:

  • Crude oil looking to test slope support again
  • DAX trying to reclaim resistance w/today’s strength
  • S&P 500 trend and support equal positives, watch the NDX

See how the majority of traders are positioned in various markets/currencies and what it says about future price fluctuations – IG Client Sentiment

Gold price range makes for tough trading (unless fading)

Gold has become an increasingly difficult handle with a range continuing to mature, however; the good news is that it won’t last forever and for the patient trader there should be a directional opportunity soon. For those looking to fade levels then this is your market as momentum continues to fail in either direction. For now, staying sidelined until price action clears up.

Gold Daily Chart (Range)

gold daily chart, rangebound

See what has been driving Gold in the Quarterly Report

Crude oil looking to test slope support again

Crude oil has been volatile, but not necessarily in a good way, unless you’re focused exclusively on intra-day trades. We’ve seen a few sharp moves in both directions which has brought a lot of question marks. We’ve discussed it a lot in recent months, but the July 2017 slope remains a focal point, with last week again solidifying its importance. Stay above and we could soon see oil trade higher in-line with the broader trend. Break below and the June 2017 trend-line and 200-day will come into play as important support. In either event, oil is well supported for now.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (July ’17 slope)

crude oil daily chart, july slope

What has been driving Crude Oil this quarter? See the Quarterly Report for details.

DAX trying to reclaim resistance w/today’s strength

This morning, we looked at the DAX and its attempt to reclaim a prior area of support. The key is how today’s close unfolds. A strong close will keep pressure on the top-side, while a reversal after climbing above resistance will have a possible key-reversal day in play and put pressure on the downside in the near-term.

DAX Daily Chart (Facing off with resistance)

DAX daily chart, facing off with resistance

S&P 500 trend and support equal positives, watch the NDX

It’s hard to argue with which way the S&P is generally heading, and with support not far below via a trend-line and the recent swing-low around the old highs we must continue to respect a bullish bias. However, we are continuing to keep our eye on the Nasdaq 100 for further cues of a possible top. The index is teetering out of the rising wedge dating back to the beginning of the year, and should it start to roll down below 7400 the market could weaken materially. But until then, we will remain respecting support as it hasn’t paid not to (it usually doesn’t).

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Positive Trend and support)

S&P 500 daily chart, positive trend + support

Nasdaq 100 Weekly Chart (Rising wedge)

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart, rising wedge

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (Teetering on edge of wedge)

Nasdaq 100 daily chart, teetering on the edge of the wedge

Check out what has been driving global equities in our Quarterly Report

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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