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Trading Outlook for USD, EUR/USD, NZD Crosses, Gold Price & More

Trading Outlook for USD, EUR/USD, NZD Crosses, Gold Price & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The current environment isn’t the most exciting with the dollar chop continuing, but that could be about to change. Price action in the euro is contracting, but as price contracts it works towards an eventual expansion. We revisited GBP/NZD from the long-side and took a peek at a development in AUD/NZD. Gold is neither here nor there at the moment, but increasingly looking like it may want to trade higher soon.

Technical Highlights:

  • USD Index (DXY), euro remain stuck in limbo
  • GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD could be on divergent paths
  • Gold price choppiness and what to make of it

To check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook on major markets and currencies, see the DailyFX Trading Forecasts.

USD Index (DXY), euro remain stuck in limbo

Mainly because of its largest constituent, the euro, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is chopping around with limited indication of what it wants do next. The choppiness is drawing towards the apex of a developing wedge, however; which should soon provide directional cues upon a breakout.

There is strong support around several trend-lines of varying degrees. A break of these lines along with 9443 is viewed as a catalyst for getting DXY to roll downhill, while a break higher and above 9574 should see upside momentum build. A wedge break coming up should go a long way towards creating a decisive outlook. Euro 11500 remains a big focal point.

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-hr Chart (Wedging up, watch support)

DXY 4-hr chart wedging up, watch support

EUR/USD Daily Chart (11500 remains key)

To see what’s been driving the Euro, check out the Quarterly Report

GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD could be on divergent paths

Last week, GBP/NZD broke out the big-picture wedge on the weekly chart, and on that the path of least resistance is higher. Dialing in on a set-up in the short-term, a period of digestion or pullback and hold of the December high could make for a nice long entry.

GBP/NZD Daily Chart (Triangle paves path of least resistance)

gbpnzd daily chart, watch a dip/consolidation after triangle breakout paves path higher

AUD/NZD may be on the verge of going a different way if support doesn’t hold. It’s solid support at the moment, but if the developing head-and-shoulders sequence comes to fruition then support may not last too much longer. Would-be longs can continue to use support as a backstop until broken, while those looking for a short a daily close below 10852 should clear a path lower.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart (Big support first, H&S pattern?)

AUD/NZD daily chart, big support first, but a break validates a H&S formation

See what’s driving GBP in the Quarterly Pound Report

Gold price choppiness and what to make of it

Gold has been flopping around similarly to the dollar, but the fact it continues to hold up relatively well after the flush-and-reverse move last month is a sign more upside may soon be in store. If price can break higher out of a developing wedge look for a move the April trend-line near 1220.

Gold Daily Chart (Another leg higher?)

Gold price daily chart, looks poised to trade higher on wedge break...

To find out what’s been driving gold, check out the Quarterly Gold Report

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.