We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Citi Economic Surprise Index dropped to 8 today, down from 44.9 on September 26th https://t.co/y3Jk0TUhJk
  • Here is retail FX positioning behind $GBPUSD. Bold ladies and gentlemen. Bold. https://t.co/yjVdoj1GwW
  • Overnight Swaps are pricing an 86.3% chance for a rate cut at this month's FOMC meeting, up from 70.8% on October 11th https://t.co/ar8226G3d6
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.63% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.60% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.48% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.38% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.24% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/7GWKbphTfk
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.01% Oil - US Crude: -0.06% Gold: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LAohxUnpzL
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.25%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.83%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uD1LC7SsrP
  • #Euro continues to play catch up with $GBP surge as demand for the currency remains relatively firm. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/j5Zc0CsIAu https://t.co/A6f5s3S15N
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0961 S2: 1.036 S1: 1.0082 R1: 1.1157 R2: 1.1186 R3: 1.1261 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The Fitch credit rating agency maintains the United Kingdom's 'AA' rating as well as its 'Negative Watch'
  • Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 89% percent chance of a third consecutive rate cut at the Oct 30 FOMC meeting. Two cuts in a row, claiming it isn't a policy bearing is a serious stretch. Three and attempting to make that claim deserves a temporary hold in a mental ward
Charts of Interest – DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Gold Price

Charts of Interest – DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Gold Price

2018-08-29 11:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke an important support line yesterday but held on by the close; just a temporary hold of support or a low of the move? The euro and cable are in focus as one looks to do the opposite of DXY and the other potentially carves out a bullish sequence. Gold is pulling back, watching to see if another higher low can form soon.

Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) teetering on support
  • EUR/USD looking opposite DXY as expected
  • GBP/USD developing a bottoming pattern
  • Gold pulling back, watching for signs of another higher low

To check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook on major markets and currencies, see the Q3 Trading Forecasts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) teetering on support

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded below support yesterday on an intra-basis, but by the close of the session it posted a smallish bullish reversal. It wasn’t the most inspiring turnaround, but nevertheless it suggests support may hold for now.

As we discussed last week, the quick reversal following the breakout from the June-August consolidation period suggests the dollar is on the verge of a broader reversal. The lower trend-line (making up the bottom line of the consolidation wedge) is viewed as important should it break, likely leading to another acceleration in selling. For now, we’ll respect it as support but it may not last long…

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (Teetering on support)

US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart, teetering on support

Check out the Q3 US Dollar Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view.

EUR/USD looking opposite DXY as expected

The euro is largely driving the price action behind the DXY with its hefty 57% weighting in the index. It then unsurprisingly turned down from the same wedge pattern t-line. This is viewed as more-likely-than-not to lead to a minor pullback/consolidation before driving higher. There is resistance in the 11700s to contend with, but may not prove overly problematic if recent momentum can continue.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD daily chart

Check out the Q3 Euro Forecastfor a broader fundamental and technical view.

GBP/USD developing a bottoming pattern

Cable has been one we’ve been staying away from as a long candidate given its generally poor posturing, however; sentiment is changing. Dialing in to the 4-hr time-frame, an ascending wedge is coming into play with the trend-line off the mid-month low supportive. A little more time could have the top-side of the pattern broken soon and a larger rebound in store.

GBP/USD 4-hr Chart (Possible ascending wedge)

GBP/USD 4-hr chart, possible ascending wedge

Check out the Q3 Pound Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view.

Gold pulling back, watching for signs of another higher low

In yesterday’s webinar, we discussed gold as still having a generally constructive outlook with more oversold to be worked off in the near-term. But ideally, we want to see a pullback first before re-establishing bullish bets. The downturn we are seeing now could provide that opportunity. The 4-hr is giving us a good look at the lower parallel of a channel off the low, a touch of this line and thorough test of the prior peak could offer good risk/reward for would-be longs.

Gold 4-hr Chart (Channel support for higher low)

Gold 4-hr chart, channel support for higher low

Check out the Q3 Gold Forecastfor a broader fundamental and technical view

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.