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Charts for Next Week: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, Gold Price & More

Charts for Next Week: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, Gold Price & More

2018-08-17 10:52:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

There aren’t a ton of great charts out there right now after having seen some big moves the week before, but still a few notable situations to keep watch of. In the near-term, the dollar became overbought and some backing-and-filling is in order before trying to push higher. With that, the euro could try and retest broken support at 11500 in the week ahead. USD/CNH is on the verge of posting a key-weekly reversal while gold may have bottomed for now on a flush-and-reverse situation.

Technical Highlights:

  • USD Index (DXY) backing-and-filling in order
  • EUR/USD to back-and-full, potentially test 11500
  • USD/JPY could be on the verge of breaking down
  • USD/CNH weekly reversal (if holds) points to weakness
  • Gold to benefit from weakening dollar after flush-and-reverse

To check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook on major markets and currencies, see the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

USD Index (DXY) backing-and-filling in order

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is beginning to roll over, and after seeing the extended move coming out of the ascending wedge it is due for a breather. How that unfolds will be of significant interest in the days to follow. A benign decline could soon set the dollar up for another run higher in the days ahead. A retest of the top of the wedge or trend-line from April may come into play, but as long as it holds a bullish outlook remains well intact.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart

US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart

EUR/USD to back-and-fill, potentially test 11500

Next week may bring a retest of the widely-watched 11500 level that the euro broke last Friday. It could offer a solid risk/reward spot from which traders can enter short on a pullback. If sellers show up ahead of time, then a consolidation breakdown trade may present itself on a thorough break of 11300.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (back-and-fill)

EUR/USD daily chart, backing-and-filling, possible test of 11500

Check out the Q3 Euro Forecastfor a broader fundamental and technical view.

USD/JPY could be on the verge of breaking down

USD/JPY is close to posting its 3rd weekly reversal in the past five weeks. The inability to hold rallies around resistance suggests we could soon see downside follow-through. A break below the Monday low at 11011 should usher in more selling, with the 108/109 area initially targeted.

USD/JPY Weekly Chart (Unable to hold a rally)

USD/JPY weekly chart, reversals indicate inability to hold rallies

Check out the Q3 Yen Forecastfor a broader fundamental and technical view.

USD/CNH weekly reversal (if it holds) points to weakness

As we discussed earlier in the morning, USD/CNH is in the process of cementing a key-reversal bar around the December 2016 high. If the weekly reversal holds in place without a rally today ruining the formation, then downside follow-through could be in store for next week.

USD/CNH Weekly Chart (Key-reversal near completion)

USD/CNH weekly chart, key-reversal near completion barring big rally for remainder of day

Gold to benefit from weakening dollar after flush-and-reverse

Gold may have very well undergone a capitulation-style bottom this week, with a strong flush-and-reverse in momentum. As long the Thursday low at 1160 holds on a closing basis look for higher prices to unfold as the dollar takes a break from rallying. This trade is tied to CNH (correlation between the two is 97%), so keep an eye on USD/CNH and be mindful of total risk if trading both.

Gold Daily Chart (downdraft & reversal)

Gold daily chart, downdraft and reversal looking to lead to bounce

Check out the Q3 Gold Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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