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Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, Gold Price & More

Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, Gold Price & More

2018-08-15 11:30:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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The euro went from one extreme to another; that is, EUR/USD went from choppy to one-way trade in a hurry. Similar happened to AUD/USD in the dollar-spectrum. EUR/AUD recently broke free from a range and sellers are showing up on the retest, suggesting it will head lower. USD/CAD is neither here nor there at the immediate moment, but that could change soon with a key technical development taking shape. Gold is oversold, but need to wait for bullish price action before looking for higher prices.

Technical Highlights:

  • EUR/USD trading towards potential support
  • EUR/AUD range-break, rejection on retest has lower levels in focus
  • USD/CAD working on bullish formation, need to wait for break
  • Gold price could be nearing a bounce, need good price action first

To check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook on major markets and currencies, see the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

EUR/USD trading towards potential support

On Friday, the euro cratered through the important 11500-line, going from an extreme state of choppiness to a one-way move just like that. Broadly speaking, more weakness is expected, however; there may be a bounce in the interim. The spike-high from the U.S. presidential elections in November 2016 was solid resistance last year as well, which now has this level in focus as support.

It resides just under 11300, and while it is viewed as support, it is seen more through a lens of managing existing shorts than using it as a spot to turn bullish. Hold, then taking profits on shorts isn’t a bad idea; break through and there may be an opportunity to continue extending bearish bets.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

eurusd daily chart with support close by

Check out the Q3 Euro Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view.

EUR/AUD range-break, rejection on retest has lower levels in focus

On 8/3, EUR/AUD broke free from a historically tight range. The past two session have seen a solid retest take shape. Furthermore, there is a bear-flag forming on the 4-hr. Looking for the range-break to continue to extend. For more details, check out the detailed set-ups for EUR/AUD & USD/CAD.

Check out the IG Sentiment Index and see how traders are responding to price swings across various markets, and why this can act as a powerful contrarian indicator.

EUR/AUD 4-hr Chart

eur/aud 4-hr chart

USD/CAD working on bullish formation, need to wait for break

USD/CAD recently held trend support from January and on that a bull-flag is beginning to come into view. It needs to trigger by breaking the upper trend-line, but so far it is looking like a good pattern. It would be in-line with the generally upward sloping trend in place since last year. We’ll delve into this more in future webinars…

USD/CAD Daily Chart

usd/cad daily chart, bull-flag potential

Gold price could be nearing a bounce, need good price action first

As we discussed this morning, gold looks oversold with sentiment turning rather dour. This sets the stage for a bounce, but price action needs to first cooperate. Without seeing some type of bullish response by the market oversold can become more oversold.

Gold Daily Chart

gold daily chart

Check out the Q3 Gold Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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