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Trading Outlook for USD/JPY, Yen-crosses, AUD/USD, Gold & Others

Trading Outlook for USD/JPY, Yen-crosses, AUD/USD, Gold & Others

2018-08-08 11:30:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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USD/JPY put in a reversal week last week and is threatening to break a crossroad of support on our radar. AUD/USD continues to range (triangulate) and may do so for a bit longer, but could become of significant interest as the range grows long in the tooth. There are a couple of JPY crosses on the watchlist. Gold price has a trend-line squarely in focus; fade or break?

Technical Highlights:

  • USD/JPY threatening to break support; Yen-crosses in focus
  • AUD/USD range/triangle won’t last forever
  • Gold price in a fight at trend-line resistance; fade or break?

To check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook on major markets and currencies, see the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

USD/JPY threatening to break support; Yen-crosses in focus

Back on July 26, USD/JPY posted a reversal off of a confluence of support (June trend-line, top of ascending wedge, 2015 trend-line), and for a brief time it looked good from the long-side. However, in recent sessions, despite a firm dollar and generally healthy risk appetite, we have seen USD/JPY roll over. A break below 11058 will have focus on further weakness. The test that is going on now is an important one for the near-term outlook.

USD/JPY Daily Chart (Support under attack)

usd/jpy daily chart, support under attack

Check out the Q3 Yen Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view

We had CHF/JPY on the radar last month as it looked poised to make good on an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, but it failed to close above all resistance into the 11300s. The recent failures have the cross now on the verge of breaking trend support from May and dropping below the 7/27 low. A drop below both thresholds should keep pressure on the pair for the foreseeable future.

CHF/JPY Daily Chart (Support at risk of breaking)

CHF/JPY daily chart, t-line/support on verge of breaking

AUD/JPY is in the middle of a multi-month range, which typically means to do nothing. But with a descending wedge forming on the 4-hr, there could be an opportunity to catch a move towards the other side of the range. More time is needed for full development, but a break under recent lows beneath 8200 should help carry it towards the 8050-ish area.

AUD/JPY 4-hr Chart (break lower could come soon)

AUD/JPY 4-hr chart, support break could be coming soon with descending wedge

Check out the IG Sentiment Index and see how traders are responding to price swings across various markets, and why this can act as a powerful contrarian indicator.

AUD/USD range/triangle won’t last forever

AUD/USD has been trading in an extremely persistent range, now taking on the shape of a triangle. Given the trend and trend-line resistance a downside break is the likely path. A drop below 7300 will have a pair of swing lows in focus down in the 7100s. We’ll follow up on this one as things progress…

AUD/USD Daily Chart (Range/Triangle)

AUD/USD daily chart, a breakout is coming...

Gold price in a fight at trend-line resistance; fade or break?

As we discussed earlier this morning, gold is struggling at a trend-line from June. It has touched it numerous times in recent sessions, adding weight to the notion it could break, but without a rally above the trend remains in favor of lower prices.

Gold is trading at the top a support zone (1205), but could soon sink to the bottom of it at 1195 if price action persists in bearish fashion. A break above the trend-line may give longs some hope, but on this end a break and higher low is needed before considering further strength.

Check out the Q3 Gold Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view

Gold 4-hr Chart (t-line dictates)

Gold 4-hr chart, t-line dictates

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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