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Trading Outlook for USD Index, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, Gold Price & More

Trading Outlook for USD Index, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, Gold Price & More

2018-08-01 11:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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The general trading environment in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has been choppy (euro largely to thank for that), but there are a couple of pairs which have had some directional moves amongst the slop. USD/CAD is sinking back towards an important zone, while GBP/USD remains within the confines of a downward channel. USD/JPY is trying to peel higher following its pullback. Gold oversold could become more oversold.

Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) choppy, coiling up
  • USD/CAD declining towards big support zone
  • GBP/USD bearish channel remains in play
  • Gold price set to weaken further

To check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook on major markets and currencies, see the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) choppy, coiling up

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains stuck in chop-city, but overall the price action is constructive as the spring rally continues to get digested. With more time a clean continuation-style wedge could develop and present clarity. A sustained break below the recent low at 94.08 would be cause for concern from the long-side and may bring with it an unexpected unwinding of longs.

Today, we have FOMC, but expectations for an outsized move are tempered. No hike is expected, attention will be on the statement. If you want to listen as the announcement unfolds, our Chief Strategist, John Kicklighter, will be providing coverage and instant analysis starting at 17:45 GMT time.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart (More wedging expected)

us dollar index daily chart wedging up

Check out the Q3 USD Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view

USD/CAD declining towards big support zone

USD/CAD may continue to decline in the days ahead, but it has a big zone of support not far below from around 12960 to 12880. There is a trend-line from January, the top the trend-line off the 2016 peak, and 2012 slope which has been in play since last year. Volatile price action in the support zone could present a buy-the-dip opportunity.

USD/CAD Daily Chart (Support zone below)

USD/CAD daily chart with support zone

GBP/USD bearish channel remains in play

GBP/USD remains stuck within the confines of a downward sloping channel, and as long as it stays there a bearish bias will remain. A break above the 7/26 high at 13213 won’t necessarily turn the picture bullish but will at least bring caution to shorts. Tomorrow brings ‘Super Thursday’, it is unclear just how super the day will be, though. For live BoE coverage, join analyst Martin Essex at 10:45 GMT time.

GBP/USD Daily Chart (Bearish Channel)

GBP/USD daily chart (bearish channel)

Check out the Q3 GBP Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view

Gold price set to weaken further

Gold started to make a break for it yesterday, but the decline was cut short with a bounce. The bounce, however, still has it pinned under the trend-line from June, and as long as that holds then so does the immediate trend lower. A break above will open up a little room into the mid-1230s, but overall, it’s an uphill battle despite being somewhat oversold. Looking for one more leg lower into the 1205/1195 range before a broader recovery may get underway.

Gold Price 4-hr Chart (Trend keeps it on track for more weakness)

Gold price 4-hr chart, trend keeps it pointed towards more weakness

Check out the Q3 Gold Forecast for a broader fundamental and technical view

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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