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Technical Outlook for Crude Oil, Gold Price, DAX, S&P 500 & More

Technical Outlook for Crude Oil, Gold Price, DAX, S&P 500 & More

2018-07-31 11:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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Crude oil is trying to gain its footing, but the WTI contract still at risk of testing the all-important July ’17 slope. Gold is finding limited buying at current prices, chart suggests another leg down could be in store. Global indices are heading for the weakest period of the year as summer rally time draws towards a conclusion.

Technical Highlights:

  • WTI crude oil edging higher, but still at risk of slope test
  • Gold price failing to attract buyers, another leg lower may be in store
  • Global stocks may soon struggle, DAX and S&P 500 techs examined

What is expected to drive markets through the end of the quarter? Check out the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

WTI crude oil edging higher, but still at risk of slope test

WTI oil is finding a few buyers recently to push it higher, but not the kind momentum which just yet suggest the decline off the monthly high is over. The narrow push is creating a bear-flag, and with a little more time may lead to an important test of the July slope dating back a year-ago this month.

The bottom trend-line of the developing flag can be used as a guide for current longs or those looking to establish a bullish position, while those looking to short may be best served by waiting for a confirmed break. Ideally, we see a breakdown and test of the one-year slope; from there another big dip-trip opportunity could emerge on a powerful hold, or if it breaks then we can switch gears as a potential trend change comes into play. It’s one of the more important inflection points out there.

For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (Maintain footing or test July ’17 slope?)

WTI crude oil daily chart, hold its footing or test July '17 slope?

Gold price failing to attract buyers, another leg lower may be in store

Recently, gold has been working off oversold via time; that is, correcting sideways. The failure to garner any buying interest is exposing it to more weakness. We’re using the trend-line from last month as a guide for lower prices. A breakdown will have 1211, 1205, and then 1195 up next as support levels. A break higher over the trend-line won’t necessary give longs the upper-hand, but it could spur a recovery back into the mid to upper-1230s.

Gold Daily Chart (Support levels from last year in view)

Gold daily chart, support levels from last year in focus

Gold 4-hr Chart (Weak Price Action, t-line resistance)

Gold 4-hr chart, weak price action/t-line resistance

For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Gold

Global stocks may soon struggle, DAX and S&P 500 techs examined

Time is running out for the summer rally period as the calendar is set to flip to a new month tomorrow. August and September have often been unkind to stocks, and with that should we start to see bearish price action corroborating seasonality then we’ll be looking to play weakness in the weeks ahead.

The DAX has been in rally mode for a month now, but sellers could put the upward channel since late-June to the test soon if the trend-line off the record high proves to be too much of a hurdle to overcome. A rally into the trend-line followed by a sharp turn lower and break of the lower parallel would make for a strong set of circumstances to look for renewed weakness. But as long as the channel remains intact there is no solid reason to swing heavily bearish.

Could stocks be in for a sell-off as month two of the quarter kicks off? Check out the Q3 Forecast for Global Equity Indices to see our take.

DAX Daily Chart (Bullish channel meeting t-line resistance)

DAX daily chart, bullish channel meeting t-line resistance

The S&P 500 nearly closed the January gap last week, but fell a few handles shy. The turn down the past couple of days has been mildly alarming, but with solid support at its feet we will see if that may soon change. The area surrounding 2800 has proven to be an inflection point, should it hold then another push higher may quickly develop. A drop below and the trend-line from the May spike-low could come under fire.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Support test in store)

S&P 500 daily chart, support test in store

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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