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Gold Price Oversold; Technical Outlook for Crude Oil, FTSE, S&P 500 & More

Gold Price Oversold; Technical Outlook for Crude Oil, FTSE, S&P 500 & More

2018-07-24 11:00:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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Gold price is on the oversold side of the ledger, but below a key long-term threshold making the outlook mixed at the moment, but favoring a recovery. WTI crude oil is on the verge of testing the July ’17 slope, viewed as a very important threshold. The FTSE is trying to breakout out of an ascending wedge, while in the U.S. the S&P 500 is trying to hold onto support and further its summer rally.

Technical Highlights:

  • Gold price is oversold, but below big support
  • WTI crude oil nearing major long-term slope test
  • FTSE trying to break out, S&P 500 summer rally to continue

Recently we released new quarterly forecasts; to see our fundamental and technical insights on major markets and currencies, check out the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

Gold price is oversold, but below big support

The recent decline in gold price has it in an oversold state and due for a bounce, but working against it is the fact it is below the December 2015 trend-line. This makes it a bit of a tricky spot, however; tactically speaking, there are traders who might find this type of oversold situation of interest for playing a recovery bounce. (For more on why gold is oversold.)

A higher-low may be underway now with last week’s low looking poised to hold for now. This could lead towards the 1237 level up to a retest of the broken 2015 trend-line. It’s an uphill battle, but a correction is anticipated either via a bounce or at the least through time; that is, a move sideways which digests the recent swoon.

For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Gold

Gold Daily Chart (oversold below 2015 t-line)

Gold daily chart oversold below 2015 trend-line

WTI crude oil nearing major long-term slope test

The recent decline in WTI crude isn’t finding much sponsorship for a rally, with yesterday’s reversal lower as a very recent demonstration of oil’s difficulties in finding a lift. This has us looking for lower prices. Special interest lies at the July 2017 slope about $2.5 lower. It’s in confluence with a trend-line from August, but the slope by itself is where our attention lies. It has been in play as support since last year and most recently in June. Bullish price action around this slope will keep oil in play from the long-side, while a break could be an important trend-turning event.

For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (July slope just below)

WTI crude oil daily chart with July slope below

Brent crude broke the June 2017 trend-line on July 16, shifting focus lower. Yesterday brought with it a reversal bar at broken trend support and the notion we will see another move lower in the days ahead in line with WTI.

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart (reversal bar on t-line retest)

Brent crude oil daily chart, reversal on test of trend-line

FTSE trying to break out, S&P 500 summer rally to continue

The FTSE is on the verge of trying to break free from an ascending wedge dating back a little over a month. A strong breakout above 7716 will have price pushing higher, while a failure to hold today’s rally and close back inside the pattern will at the least keep the pattern under construction, and still the possibility it resolves lower. The thinking is that the footsie will soon confirm a bullish breakout as global equities look poised to continue higher in the near-term.

For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Global Equity Indices

FTSE Daily Chart (Trying to break wedge)

FTSE daily chart, attempting to break wedge

The S&P 500 is sitting just above peaks in March and June, and given the overall bullish tone to price action as long as the index stays above 2789 another leg higher is seen as the likely outcome. The gap from 2833 up to 2853 is seen as the target on continued strength, followed closely by the record high. A drop back below 2789 will likely see selling until at least the trend-line off the May low.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Trading on Support)

S&P 500 daily chart, trading on support

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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