EUR/USD is headed for another big test next week in the 11500s, how many times can it pass? There are a couple of euro cross-rates of interest as they roll down from resistance. USD/JPY is setting up to continue its bullish ways in the days/weeks ahead. Gold is flirting with the breaking of major trend support.
Technical Highlights:
- EUR/USD 11500s set to come under fire again
- EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD have growing short appeal
- Gold could be in for trouble if 2015 trend-line fails
- USD/JPY breakout above 2015 trend-line in full force
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EUR/USD 11500s set to come under fire again
From Wednesday’s commentary: “The euro found strong support in the 11500s and has since seen a bit of a rebound, but momentum and the broader trend aren’t bringing to the table with it much conviction.” Indeed, the euro has fizzled out and at risk of testing big support once again.
Should we see the low-11500s next week and another round of buying come in, a descending wedge could come into play (a scenario we’ll look at another time if relevant). Should a close unfold below 11500 look for selling to accelerate.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for the Euro
EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD have growing short appeal
EUR/CAD is turning down from a trend-line/slope extending back to February 2017. But more appealing here is the 4-hr chart with its sloping head-and-shoulders, generally weakening trend structure after breaking the channel (bear-flag) dating back to the end of May. Looking for lower prices in the days ahead.
EUR/CAD Daily Chart
EUR/CAD 4-hr Chart
EUR/AUD continues to struggle in the 15800s, with a peak confirmed here acting as a potential right shoulder of a broad head-and-shoulders top. Of course, it will need to decline below the neckline before it’s valid, but potential is there. That potential will grow if shorter-term support is broken on the 4-hr chart. If recent lows are broken following the recent struggles up above, look for weakness to set in.
EUR/AUD Daily Chart
EUR/AUD 4-hr Chart
Gold could be in for trouble if 2015 trend-line fails
Gold is dangerously close to breaking below the 3-year trend-line after posting a weekly key-reversal bar. Earlier in the week we were looking for a possible higher low trade to lead to a larger rebound, but things have taken a turn for the worse for gold, potentially much worse. If price closes the week below the 2015 trend-line and beneath the December low at 1236 look for sellers to continue hitting bids next week.
Gold Weekly Chart
For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Gold
USD/JPY breakout above 2015 trend-line in full force
USD/JPY has been the star dollar pair of the week, with it in sprint mode. A strong weekly close above the 2015 trend-line will have it poised for further gains ahead. Strategically, a prudent way to play this is to see if a confirmed weekly close above the trend-line develops first, then looking for a dip buying opportunity next week.
USD/JPY Weekly Chart
For more in-depth fundamental and technical analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for the Japanese Yen
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
