Gold at the very immediate momentum is a mess, but that is because coiling price action is leading it to the apex of a triangle which should soon break and provide much improved trading conditions. Crude oil is bouncing, but looks like it has one more leg lower in the near-term. The DAX continues to struggle at an area of resistance with today’s gap-and-trap as further evidence.
- Gold triangle should lead to a one-way move very soon
- Crude oil looks to have one more leg lower before key support test
- DAX struggle at resistance is real, today’s gap-and-trap offers more evidence
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Gold triangle should lead to a one-way move very soon
As trading becomes increasingly difficult the outlook for trading actually becomes better, for those who can wait just a little longer for the developing triangle to break. The triangle is situated between the underside of the multi-month range it broke down from last month and the trend-line from December 2016.
As we discussed this morning, a breakout to the downside is preferred given the lack of levels below 1282 to prevent it from dropping. A rise back inside the range will have gold pushing through lots of levels, which may make it a difficult situation to manage.
Silver has rallied smartly the past few days, but should gold decline then look for the rally to fail. Should gold rally, silver has to clear well into the 17s to overcome hurdles, but may do so with a strong bid for precious metals. For now, though, steering clear of silver.
Gold Daily Chart (Triangle on verge of breaking)
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Crude oil looks to have one more leg lower before key support test
Crude oil has undergone a bounce in recent days, but it’s not a very convincing rally given the sluggish price action. A bear-flag is beginning to emerge. WTI is currently testing former support as resistance by way of peaks earlier in the year as well as the broken August trend-line. If it is to turn down it should do so very soon and validate the bear-flag scenario.
Looking lower, it may not drop much given the important July slope around 64. It’s an angle which has seen significant play for quite some time and may help once again keep crude pointed higher. Should that break, though, then we will be looking for 61/60.
US Crude Oil Daily Chart (Watch Slope on another leg down)
For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Crude Oil Outlook
DAX struggle at resistance is real, today’s gap-and-trap offers more evidence
Equity indices are generally a tough spot these days, with recent one-way moves turning into choppy ranges. The DAX gapped higher this morning only to quickly shed 1% from high to low. The gap-and-trap (fresh longs on the open quickly showing losses), arrives at a familiar area in the 12900s. It’s where the market reversed lower from last week, and also a zone that saw significant treatment as support late last year.
The bearish price action at resistance doesn’t mean the DAX will just immediately drop, as there is support via a trend-line just below. It does present at the least a warning of caution for buying into the current up-move.
DAX Daily Chart (Gap-and-trap at resistance)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX