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Trading Outlook for Crude Oil, Gold Price, S&P 500, DAX & More

Trading Outlook for Crude Oil, Gold Price, S&P 500, DAX & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The plunge in crude oil is putting the year-long trend to the test again, we discuss signposts to watch for in the near-term. Gold is caught in a tough spot with range-break and trend support bottling up price. Global markets are in minor risk-off mode, small and broader considerations come into play.

Technical Highlights:

  • Crude oil’s next price sequence could be very telling
  • Gold price caught between bottom of range & trend-line
  • Global indices temporary sag, or start of bigger decline?

For in-depth fundamental and technical analysis for your favorite market or currency, check out the DailyFX Forecasts.

Crude oil’s next price sequence could be very telling

The decline in crude oil from the rising wedge we were looking at last week is bringing into play confluence of support around 65/66; highs from January and March are intersecting with a trend-line from August. Should support fail, watch the slope from July, it has numerous inflection points adding importance.

Why support holding here soon is so important, is because it would be the first hard decline not to do so since the year-long rally began. A bounce and failure would indicate a change of character in price behavior, and with speculative long interest still quite large, there is plenty of fuel to drive prices much lower.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (Repeated response or failure?)

US crude oil daily chart with support, how will it respond?

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Crude Oil Forecast

Gold price caught between bottom of range & trend-line

Gold continues to be one of the only hold-out markets for 2018 in offering a substantial opportunity, and until price action cleans up we continue to favor other markets. With uncertainties rising a move could come at any time, so keep one eye on gold, but no need to press the issue right now.

Momentum from the multi-month range-break was recently stopped in its tracks with the help of the December 2016 trend-line. It’s a tough spot with gold testing the bottom of the range as resistance, but also having solid long-term trend support. We’ll come back later – something has to eventually give.

Gold Daily Chart (Stuck between range/trend-line)

Gold daily chart, caught between support and resistance

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Gold Forecast

Global indices temporary sag, or start of bigger decline?

Global equites are under a little pressure, with the FTSE having gotten clobbered soon after new record highs, support arrives around 7550/600. How the market responds soon could be very telling as a long-term ‘RST’ pattern could come into play (Check out this FTSE commentary for more details.)

FTSE Daily Chart (Decline into support)

FTSE daily chart, decline into support

The DAX has taken its share of punishment too, recently. It broke back below the ~12900/13000 region. A bounce back into the resistance zone will be watched closely; a turn down from there could put shorts back in the driver’s seat.

DAX Daily Chart (Extended into top-side trend-line)

DAX daily chart with resistance zone

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is headed for failure today out of a recent consolidation. If it stays below on a closing basis, then watch how downside momentum develops. We could be on the verge of confirming the 3rd peak of a topping sequence which suggests prices could head much lower as we head towards weakest time of the year for stocks. This would bring back the type of short-term two-way trade we saw earlier in the year.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart (3 peaks, top nearly finished?)

S&P 500 weekly chart with bearish price sequence

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Global Equity Indices Forecast

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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