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Technical Outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY-Crosses, Gold & More

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY-Crosses, Gold & More

2018-05-23 11:21:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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EUR/USD is currently probing important support, but yet to show much in the way of bullish price action. GBP/USD is on approach to a test of support, price action surrounding it will be important to watch. JPY-pairs are on the move, momentum favors more yen strength. Gold remains caught between range-break and 2016 trend-line.

Technical Highlights:

  • EUR/USD testing support, GBP/USD nearing a test
  • JPY rallying sharply, looks likely to see follow-through
  • Gold caught between range-break and hold of trend support

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EUR/USD testing support, GBP/USD nearing a test

EUR/USD continues to fall further down the rabbit hole, with only one minor bullish reaction recently as support in the vicinity of 11730/11670 is being thoroughly tested. What we’re watching for is whether it can find a tradable low or not, that is, can buyers show up in earnest?

If not, then support near 11500 may soon become targeted. From a tactical standpoint, the thinking on this is end is that support is to be watched closely for those who may have existing shorts and may want to protect profits against a counter-trend move, and not so much as a great spot to turn bullish.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Probing important support)

EUR/USD daily chart, buyers absent at support

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Euro Forecast

GBP/USD is in the process of continuing lower from a period of consolidation, with 13300 (+/-20 pips) as a spot to watch for a bullish reaction. As is the case with EUR/USD, support isn’t viewed as a spot to turn bullish, but rather a spot to keep an eye on existing shorts. Furthermore, support at cable’s feet isn’t as steadfast as the support in the euro, so probability of it breaking appears higher. We also went through an update on an existing GBP/AUD short trade.

GBP/USD Daily Chart (~13300 support test)

GBP/USD daily chart with support below

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the British Pound Forecast

Other USD-pairs we looked at included USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY

JPY rallying sharply, looks likely to see follow-through

USD/JPY is getting clobbered today from an area of resistance tagged to start the week. If today’s decline can largely remain intact, further weakness looks likely towards the high 10800s in the very near-term.

GBP/JPY is currently trading below an important trend-line dating back to last year, and should its losses maintain below this threshold through the remainder of today, then look for 14500 next.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart (Trend-line break)

GBP/JPY daily chart, trend-line break

EUR/JPY is trading below support, too, and as is the case with JPY in general, a hold below support opens up a path for more weakness.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart (Support break)

EUR/JPY daily chart, breaking support

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Japanese Yen Forecast

We also looked at AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY.

Gold caught between range-break and hold of trend support

On Monday, gold carved out a solid-looking key-reversal bar on an attempt to break through the December 2016 trend-line. This has a bid in the precious metal for now, but not too far ahead lies stiff resistance by way of the bottom-end of the range dating back to the beginning of the year. It’s a tricky spot for gold, but the thinking is that at some point the December trend-line will break.

Gold Daily Chart (Caught between support & resistance)

Gold daily chart, caught between bottom of range and 2016 trend-line

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Gold Forecast

We also took a look at the crude oil chart from yesterday’s webinar.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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