Technical Outlook – Is USD a Short? Euro Cross-rate Appeal (Video)
The US dollar has experienced one of the most aggressive price moves seen in months, and the question is whether it’s overdone and time to short. On the radar are a couple of euro cross-rates which could soon hold appeal from the long-side (EUR/CAD & EUR/NZD).
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US dollar extended, but is it a short?
To cut straight away to my take on whether USD is a short – not at this time. It’s been a very extended move out of the bottoming triangle and looks overdone in the near-term, but the thinking on this end is that there is more to go on the upside after a correction, whether the correction happens through price or time. That is, after a pullback or period of horizontal price action where overbought conditions are worked off. Overall, though, there might not be much meat on the bones for shorts.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart
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EUR/USD, the primary driver of the US Dollar Index, could bounce at any time, but doesn’t have any real support levels to lean on as a long candidate. So, while a counter-trend move is quite possible, the path of least resistance is likely to remain down until more significant levels are hit.
A short-term shallow recovery marked by a struggle to gain upside momentum will pique interest in reestablishing short exposure. Looking lower, the low-11700s and then the swing-low from November at 11554 will be targeted over the short to intermediate-term.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
GBP/USD broke significant channel support last week, which has it poised for lower prices. There may be a corrective bounce in store before trading lower, with 13656 up to near 13800 targeted as a zone of interest for establishing new short positions.
Tomorrow is ‘Super Thursday’ and the BoE might inflate some life into cable, but it generally looks headed down. The area around 13300 sticks out as a potential point of support down to near 13000 on further weakness.
GBP/USD Weekly Chart
GBP/USD Daily Chart
EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD declining towards trend-lines
The following couple of crosses aren’t there yet but have trend-lines with solid inflection points along with the 200-day MA passing right in their vicinity. EUR/CAD has a steady trend-line rising up from February 2017 in near confluence with its 200-day. A strong rejection from trend support is seen as a catalyst for a recovery bounce at the least, if not a resumption of the trend higher dating back to last year.
EUR/CAD Daily Chart
EUR/NZD isn’t as clean, but nevertheless has a strong trend-line coming up from February of last year, as well. It’s 200-day doesn’t currently have the same confluence as does the trend-line/200-day in EUR/CAD, but it’s creeping up not far below. As is the case with euro-cad, a drop into the trend-line and forceful rejection will have eyes pointed higher.
EUR/NZD Daily Chart
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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