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The euro continues to be confined, but will eventually break one-way or another. Several GBP-crosses are presenting set-ups of intrigue (GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD & EUR/GBP). Gold continues its struggles around the 2013 trend-line/top of range. Will the Dow turn down to complete its descending wedge?

Technical Highlights:

  • EUR/USD range persists, breakout likely growing closer
  • GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD & EUR/GBP set-ups of interest
  • Gold trading around key area of resistance
  • Dow needs to turn down to keep descending wedge in play

For in-depth fundamental and technical analysis for your favorite market or currency, check out the newly released DailyFX Q2 Forecasts.

EUR/USD range persists, breakout likely growing closer

As we’ve been discussing, EUR/USD continues to be a difficult proposition within the ongoing range, limiting opportunities to fades off notable top and bottom-side levels. There is good support not far below at the April 2017 trend-line, May 2016 slope, and the recent swing-low. This keeps a slightly upward bias intact.

On the top-side the 2008 trend-line is eyed as the next objective for resistance. Generally, it appears we will see a breakout to the top-side, but until we get a confirmed break we must respect the choppy trading environment. Ranges don’t last forever and given how long this one has persisted, there is optimism that it will break sooner rather than later.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Range confinement)

eurusd daily chart with range and 2008 trendline

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Q2 Forecast for EUR

GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD & EUR/GBP set-ups of interest

GBP/NZD turned higher yesterday from a trend-line we’ve been watching. In addition to the trend-line there is a downward channel, which if broken should lead to a move higher. For more details on the set-up, check out the GBP/NZD trade idea published earlier this morning.

GBP/NZD Daily Chart (Bullish set-up)

gbpnzd daily chart with bullish set-up

GBP/AUD is consolidating nicely after a strong run in March, with the congestion turning into a triangle pattern. Overall, whether a well-formed triangle develops or not, the cross is setting up for a move higher at some point soon.

GBP/AUD Daily Chart (Consolidating, possible triangle)

gbpaud daily chart consolidating

EUR/GBP could finally be on the verge of picking up sustainable momentum with it trading below all support at the moment. A poor close today would have the weekly chart decidedly below support as well on a closing basis. Given the generally choppy nature of the cross, looking to short stalling rallies on its way lower is the preferred approach. Looking lower, there isn’t any major daily support until down towards 8300.

EUR/GBP Daily Chart (Breaking Support)

eurgbp daily chart with support break

In FX, we also looked at GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, along with a few others.

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Q2 Forecast for GBP

Gold trading around key area of resistance

As is the case with the dollar, gold continues to remain range-bound. There is strong resistance around the 2013 trend-line up to 1366. There could be yet another rejection on a weekly basis, casting doubt on the recent rise. It would seem gold is poised to eventually break out to the top-side, but until it does we will continue to honor bottom and top-side levels.

Gold Daily Chart (2013 trend-line/range)

Gold daily chart with struggles around 2013 trend-line, top or range

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Q2 Forecast for Gold

Dow needs to turn down to keep descending wedge in play

The descending wedge is still in play for the Dow, but it will need to turn down very shortly if this is to remain the case. The broad pattern suggests if it does continue to develop, that we’ll see another big drop. However, if the Dow breaks the trend-line off the highs, the pattern will be busted and upside follow-through is likely.

Those trading risk-sensitive pairs (i.e. – Yen), should take note even if not trading indices, as the risk-on/off theme has an impact on their direction.

Dow Daily Chart (Descending wedge)

dow daily chart, descending wedge scenario

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Q2 Forecast for Global Equity Indices

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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