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NFP Preview: Price Action Setups Around the US Dollar

NFP Preview: Price Action Setups Around the US Dollar

2018-04-05 19:15:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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In this webinar, we used price action to look at macro markets ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the United States. The expectation is for +188k jobs to have been added to American Non-Farm Payrolls in the month of March, and this comes on the heels of a rather strong ADP jobs report. The US Dollar is trading at five-week highs ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, and this brought impact to a number of currency pairs that we looked at during this webinar.

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US Dollar Strings Together Strength Ahead of NFP

We looked at DXY trading around the 90.00 level on Tuesday, and the US Dollar has held the line, at least so far. DXY hung around the 90.00 level for the first part of this week, and a topside breakout developed over the past two trading days. Today’s strength has been especially noteworthy, with buyers pushing prices beyond the prior swing-high from March 20th at 90.45. We’ve seen some short-term support develop around this prior resistance level, indicating that a near-term trend of strength may be on the horizon. At the very least, this should urge caution around the short-side of the Greenback until we get to tomorrow’s report, as bearish USD-continuation appears to be a bit further away than it was just last week.

EUR/USD Testing Support; Possible Secondary Support Around 1.2167

EUR/USD has been undergoing a test of longer-term support throughout today’s session, and it does not look as though price action is going to be able to hold above the 2017 bullish trend-line ahead of today’s close. This bearish move has been marked by a fairly strong bout of short-term momentum over the past week, aided in part by that move of USD-strength, and this has brought to question the prospect of bullish trend continuation in EUR/USD. But – as we looked at during the webinar, there’s another possible area of support around 1.2167, as this is the 50% retracement of the 2014-2017 major move in the pair, and this level had helped to set support in both January and February of this year.

GBP/USD Testing at 1.4000

Similarly to the pullback in EUR/USD, we have GBP/USD pulling back with a bearish short-term move pushing prices right back to the 1.4000 level. This is somewhat of what we were looking for yesterday but, as of yet, we haven’t seen support establish itself to indicate that a low may be in. We looked at how we could use various chart time frames to do just that on today’s webinar.

USD/CAD in Support Zone

USD/CAD has found support in the zone that we were looking at on Tuesday that runs from around 1.2725-1.2759. This has been a stark reversal off of the highs from just a few weeks ago, and we’d previously seen a strong build of support around 1.2800. At this point, I want to see prices showing some response to support before looking at topside, and given that we’re going to be seeing both Canadian and US jobs reports released at the same time tomorrow, USD/CAD could get pretty noisy. We again dialed down to shorter-term charts to look at how we can gauge a response to this support zone.

USD/JPY Breaks Channel Resistance – More Strength in Store?

USD/JPY has put in a pronounced bullish move so far this week, and as we wrote yesterday, the higher-lows that came-in after the inflection at channel resistance made for a daunting backdrop for short-side strategies. At this point, those harboring bearish views will likely want to wait for some element of bearish price action to show, as this near-term move has shown in a parabolic-like fashion. We looked at a series of resistance levels that could be usable for such a purpose.

S&P 500 Continues Yesterday’s Bullish Reversal

Yesterday saw a strong reversal play out in US stocks shortly after some comments from Chief White House Economic Advisor, Larry Kudlow. We discussed this in market talk earlier today, and those comments appeared to be designed to calm market participants after tariff talk started to fuel a bout of risk aversion. This led to a strong move off of the lows, and as we looked at during the webinar, the S&P 500 looked poised for further gains as we moved towards the session close.

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

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--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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