News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% FTSE 100: 0.09% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MFEjkHP34f
  • Fed's Kashkari: Maximum employment means at the very least back to pre-COVID levels of employment
  • Fed's Kashkari: - I am opposed to rate hikes at least through 2023 - The labor market is still in a deep hole; it will take some time to get people reattached to the work force
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The Fed's interest rate dot plot has provided too-hawkish guidance in the past, I am in favor of getting rid of it - I don't believe the Delta variant of COVID will force the US to return to lockdown
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The Fed is in a decent financial position, therefore it is fine to talk about tapering monthly asset purchases - I am not seeing evidence of unanchored inflation expectations, but if that does occur then we would need to adjust
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The benefits of reducing MBS purchases first would be modest - It may take longer than September to judge progress on labor supply
  • Fed's Kashkari: - Fed funds rate should remain unchanged through 2023 - When it is time to taper, the best case scenario is to stick to the same plan as before
  • Fed's Kashkari: - Inflationary indicators have been higher than predicted, but this is expected to be temporary - Although the success against COVID is inspiring, it is still too early to declare victory
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.06% Silver: -0.11% Gold: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/jXEy4TGAZL
  • GBP/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long GBP/USD since Apr 12 when GBP/USD traded near 1.37. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to GBP/USD weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/oqggIco9Rb
Technical Outlook for Gold/Silver, Crude Oil, S&P 500 & More (Video)

Technical Outlook for Gold/Silver, Crude Oil, S&P 500 & More (Video)

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Gold is making a move again on the 2013 trend-line, and on that is at risk of a pullback near-term; break above on a weekly basis needed to clear a path higher. Silver at a vulnerable spot. Crude oil at risk of a short-term pullback off prior peak. The S&P 500 may continue rebound from big support.

Technical Highlights:

  • Gold and silver face challenges at resistance, looking for short-term weakness
  • Crude oil is trading around a prior peak, risk of near-term pullback
  • S&P 500 rebound from major support could continue (broader top could come into view)

Check out the DailyFX Top Trading Opportunities for 2018 on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Gold and silver face challenges at resistance, looking for short-term weakness

The strong rally in gold from support is at risk of a pullback now that the precious metal is again trading around the 2013 trend-line. There a short-term trend-line to contend with off the January high, as well, but the focus is primarily on the longer-term slope. A weekly close above the 2013 line as well as highs this year is needed to get momentum rolling.

So far, 2018 has brought a relatively tight range and at some point that will give-way. The feeling on this end is a resolution will come to the upside, but perhaps not until after a little more see-saw price action.

See how current positioning in various markets/FX pairs could signal their next moves on the IG Client Sentiment page.

Gold Daily Chart (Near-term pullback risk)

gold daily price chart at resistance

At this time, silver is the preferred short candidate of the two major precious metals given its relative weakness to gold and stiff resistance from around 16.80 up to 17. There are numerous inflection points in the area along with the 200-day MA running through the thick resistance.

Silver Daily Chart (At resistance)

silver daily price chart at resistance

Crude oil is trading around a prior peak, risk of near-term pullback

Yesterday, crude oil posted a bearish reversal day around the January high. This has the immediate outlook turned lower, but conviction for a strong decline to unfold is low. At this time a pullback before another turn higher is viewed the most probable outcome. Support comes in around 64.21.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (Reversal around January high)

crude oil daily price chart, reversal around january high

S&P 500 rebound from major support could continue (broader top could come into view)

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed right at the February 2016 trend-line and 200-day MA; a major area of confluence. The strong gap-and-run higher yesterday has the near-term bias tilted upward. If we don’t see sellers immediately step in, look for a run towards the trend-line off the record high.

The thinking on this end, is that we are in the process of carving out a topping sequence marked by strong declines and increasingly weaker snapbacks. If we see price action continue to weaken on rebounds at some point a break of the Feb ’16 trend-line/200-day is likely to lead to a very strong decline. For now, we’ll respect strong support for as long as it lasts.

We also discussed the outlook for the DAX, CAC, and FTSE. Look for Europe to continue to be relatively weaker than the U.S. market.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Bouncing from big support)

s&p 500 daily price chart bouncing from confluence of support

Resources for Index & Commodity Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email – SIGN UP HERE

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES